***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2020.-05.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 17.4 18.0 14.9 1.0 63.1 59.4 15.5 16.9 18.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 17.4 17.9 14.9 1.0 63.3 59.6 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 17.6 18.1 15.1 1.0 62.2 58.8 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.7 9.8 11.5 0.6 57.3 54.9 7.4 9.1 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 17.9 18.1 13.1 0.8 59.1 56.4 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.2 10.5 0.3 53.5 52.5 14.2 15.8 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 17.1 17.7 14.7 1.0 62.9 59.4 15.6 16.8 17.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 5.2 5.2 11.2 0.6 56.5 55.0 3.2 4.6 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 17.4 17.7 13.9 0.8 59.3 56.6 15.4 16.9 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 17.4 17.6 12.3 0.7 58.2 56.1 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 17.6 17.7 13.2 0.7 57.7 55.5 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.7 12.1 0.6 56.6 55.0 14.4 16.0 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 17.6 17.6 12.3 0.6 57.0 55.4 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 17.5 18.1 14.1 1.0 61.2 58.3 15.7 17.1 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 16.8 16.9 13.2 0.5 56.6 54.6 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 18.0 18.1 12.5 0.7 57.7 55.6 15.7 17.4 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 16.4 17.0 14.5 1.0 63.3 59.7 15.0 16.1 17.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 17.1 17.4 11.9 0.9 59.3 57.0 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 17.2 17.9 15.0 1.1 63.6 59.8 15.5 16.8 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 11.7 12.2 9.4 1.1 61.4 58.9 9.6 11.2 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 17.6 18.0 14.7 0.8 60.1 57.2 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 17.2 17.9 14.8 1.2 64.8 60.9 15.6 16.8 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 17.5 18.2 15.2 1.1 63.2 59.6 15.7 17.2 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 17.5 17.9 13.9 0.9 60.3 57.6 15.6 17.1 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 17.3 17.7 13.4 0.9 61.4 58.2 15.5 16.8 18.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.6 11.0 0.4 55.0 54.0 14.5 16.1 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 17.6 18.2 14.3 1.1 63.2 59.7 15.8 17.1 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 17.0 17.0 12.2 0.5 56.2 54.2 14.8 16.4 18.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 11.8 12.2 11.2 1.0 60.1 57.8 9.7 11.3 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 17.3 17.9 14.9 1.1 63.3 59.7 15.6 16.9 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------