***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2020.-19.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 4.8 6.4 7.3 0.2 52.8 50.3 5.0 6.2 7.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.1 5.8 6.9 0.2 53.0 50.6 4.4 5.6 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 6.1 7.7 7.3 0.2 54.2 51.8 6.3 7.5 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 0.3 2.1 4.7 0.2 54.2 52.1 0.5 1.8 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.5 5.2 4.8 0.2 53.8 52.0 3.7 4.9 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 4.4 4.5 3.0 0.4 57.4 55.7 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.5 6.0 7.0 0.2 52.9 50.6 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -1.5 -1.5 3.0 0.4 57.0 55.1 -3.3 -2.0 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.9 5.1 0.2 54.5 52.7 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.9 3.7 0.3 56.0 54.2 4.4 5.5 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.7 4.3 0.3 54.8 53.2 4.4 5.4 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 4.5 4.5 3.7 0.4 56.2 54.6 3.0 4.1 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.3 3.1 0.3 55.3 53.9 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.0 5.0 0.2 53.0 51.8 4.9 5.8 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.3 6.6 5.8 0.3 55.3 52.8 5.4 6.3 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.2 6.1 3.8 0.3 55.0 53.4 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.7 6.2 6.8 0.2 53.3 51.1 4.9 6.0 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 4.1 4.1 3.0 0.4 56.3 54.7 2.7 3.7 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.3 5.9 7.0 0.2 54.0 51.4 4.5 5.7 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -0.3 1.4 1.0 0.4 57.3 55.8 -0.1 1.0 2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.3 5.9 6.4 0.2 53.6 51.7 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 5.7 5.6 6.6 0.3 55.2 52.3 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.6 6.8 0.3 54.8 52.4 4.1 5.3 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.7 4.8 0.3 55.6 53.8 4.3 5.4 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.3 5.9 5.9 0.2 52.6 50.3 4.5 5.7 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.1 5.1 2.9 0.3 55.9 54.2 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.6 6.3 6.7 0.2 52.8 50.3 4.8 6.1 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.1 4.9 0.3 55.7 53.3 3.7 4.8 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 2.6 2.4 2.4 0.3 55.6 54.5 0.9 2.1 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.6 6.1 7.1 0.2 53.2 50.6 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------