***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 12.5 12.8 10.1 -2.2 29.5 30.5 13.1 14.5 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 12.6 12.9 10.4 -1.8 31.9 32.8 13.0 14.3 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 12.8 13.0 9.9 -2.6 27.0 28.1 13.5 14.9 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 84 16 0 100 3.8 3.8 5.4 -3.8 20.1 21.5 5.3 7.0 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 87 13 0 100 12.1 12.1 6.9 -4.0 19.3 20.9 13.6 15.2 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 96 4 0 100 10.0 9.2 3.5 -5.5 12.6 13.7 12.2 14.1 15.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 12.5 12.8 10.3 -1.8 32.0 32.9 12.9 14.1 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 94 6 0 100 -0.6 -1.2 3.9 -5.2 14.0 15.3 1.3 3.1 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 82 18 0 100 12.1 12.1 8.1 -3.7 20.7 22.4 13.4 15.0 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 90 10 0 100 11.5 11.2 5.3 -4.7 16.3 17.8 13.3 14.9 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 91 9 0 100 11.5 11.3 6.6 -4.7 16.5 18.1 13.3 15.0 16.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 93 7 0 100 10.3 9.7 5.0 -5.1 14.0 15.4 12.3 14.1 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 94 6 0 100 11.3 10.4 5.5 -5.3 12.7 14.2 13.3 15.1 16.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 80 20 0 100 12.4 12.6 8.4 -3.3 23.2 25.0 13.6 15.0 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 77 23 0 100 11.8 12.1 8.7 -2.9 24.5 25.9 12.9 14.5 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 94 6 0 100 11.7 11.3 5.8 -4.9 15.0 16.6 13.7 15.4 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 11.8 12.2 10.3 -1.5 34.6 35.4 12.1 13.2 14.3 30 Palic 37000G16 89 11 0 100 11.1 10.8 4.7 -4.6 16.5 18.1 12.8 14.4 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 12.7 13.0 10.3 -2.0 30.6 31.6 13.2 14.4 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 93 7 0 100 5.4 4.8 2.3 -4.7 14.5 15.9 7.3 9.1 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 12.5 12.7 9.4 -3.1 24.6 25.9 13.6 15.0 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 12.8 13.1 10.5 -1.6 34.0 34.9 13.0 14.2 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 12.9 13.1 10.1 -2.4 28.2 29.4 13.5 14.8 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 12.2 12.1 7.8 -3.7 21.3 22.9 13.4 14.9 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 12.6 12.9 8.7 -2.6 27.1 28.2 13.4 14.7 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 96 4 0 100 10.6 9.6 3.8 -5.4 11.7 13.1 12.7 14.4 16.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 12.6 13.0 9.5 -2.2 29.0 30.0 13.3 14.7 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 86 14 0 100 11.6 11.7 6.4 -3.9 20.2 21.4 13.2 14.8 16.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 89 11 0 100 5.8 5.3 3.9 -4.6 15.8 17.4 7.6 9.4 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 12.5 12.8 10.3 -2.0 30.5 31.5 13.0 14.2 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------