***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.9 4.7 4.8 0.2 53.6 53.1 3.5 4.5 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.9 4.8 4.5 0.3 54.6 54.1 3.7 4.6 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.3 7.1 4.8 0.1 52.3 52.4 5.9 6.9 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 1.4 0.9 1.8 0.0 50.2 50.5 -0.3 0.9 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 3.7 3.0 2.3 -0.2 46.4 47.8 2.1 3.2 4.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 1.1 1.4 -1.2 -1.2 33.3 38.0 1.4 2.4 3.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.9 4.8 4.5 0.3 54.5 53.7 3.8 4.6 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -4.1 -3.7 -1.0 -1.1 34.5 38.8 -3.8 -2.6 -1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.1 4.0 2.3 -0.3 45.3 46.7 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.2 3.7 0.0 -0.9 37.7 40.9 3.4 4.4 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.6 3.2 1.1 -0.8 37.9 41.1 2.9 4.0 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 1.3 1.9 0.4 -0.7 39.3 42.5 1.5 2.6 3.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.0 2.4 -0.2 -1.1 34.1 37.6 2.3 3.4 4.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.9 2.4 0.0 49.4 50.0 4.0 4.9 5.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.2 4.0 2.7 -0.4 43.8 45.6 3.4 4.4 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.4 4.0 0.6 -0.8 38.8 41.6 3.6 4.7 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 5.0 5.1 4.5 0.5 57.9 56.3 3.9 4.7 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 0.9 1.6 -0.2 -0.6 41.9 44.1 1.1 2.0 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 4.8 4.7 4.5 0.2 54.1 53.7 3.6 4.5 5.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 0.0 -1.1 -2.1 -0.7 40.9 44.0 -1.6 -0.5 0.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 4.6 4.1 3.8 -0.1 48.7 49.3 3.0 4.2 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.1 4.2 4.5 0.4 56.8 55.7 3.0 3.8 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 4.3 4.2 4.3 0.2 53.7 53.5 3.1 4.0 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.0 2.2 -0.2 46.7 47.9 3.2 4.2 5.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.6 3.8 0.2 52.8 52.3 3.4 4.5 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.1 2.7 -0.4 -0.8 38.0 41.2 2.4 3.4 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.2 4.3 0.2 52.6 52.1 3.8 5.0 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 1.1 2.1 1.7 -0.4 43.9 45.7 1.4 2.5 3.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.1 0.9 -1.2 -0.7 39.8 42.7 0.4 1.6 2.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.1 4.7 0.2 53.8 53.5 3.9 4.9 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------