***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.0 5.9 11.9 79.5 53.1 45.2 2.6 5.2 9.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 7.1 6.3 11.3 84.0 55.7 46.1 2.7 5.2 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.2 6.3 11.5 78.2 51.6 43.6 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.0 8.9 13.0 79.2 52.7 44.9 4.7 8.3 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.3 8.1 12.5 77.0 51.6 44.6 3.9 7.5 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.3 6.8 16.1 91.1 56.2 47.8 3.1 5.6 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.3 5.0 10.6 78.7 53.6 44.6 2.0 4.4 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 6.1 13.3 16.1 94.0 58.5 50.3 5.5 10.2 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.7 7.0 13.4 78.2 52.3 45.4 3.3 6.5 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.1 15.8 86.6 55.1 47.8 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.6 7.4 12.6 81.8 53.2 45.5 3.7 6.6 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.1 7.3 14.2 92.1 57.7 49.3 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.7 6.8 15.7 88.8 55.2 48.2 3.1 5.8 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.0 7.6 15.8 81.6 52.7 43.8 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.3 4.6 12.5 84.6 56.4 44.9 2.1 3.8 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.6 6.5 13.6 82.8 53.3 45.8 3.5 5.9 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.3 5.4 10.2 78.6 53.4 45.1 2.7 4.8 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.6 18.1 93.2 57.1 49.2 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.0 7.3 11.5 83.7 55.0 45.4 3.7 6.3 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.9 10.3 21.7 106.8 63.8 55.1 3.9 7.0 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.8 5.8 12.0 75.6 51.0 43.9 2.8 5.7 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.2 5.9 10.8 79.2 53.1 44.5 3.1 5.4 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.6 6.4 12.0 81.5 53.4 43.8 3.4 5.8 9.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.2 14.9 82.8 52.6 44.2 3.9 6.6 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.2 6.9 13.4 79.3 53.0 45.5 3.4 6.2 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 7.1 7.6 16.2 98.2 60.3 50.9 2.8 5.3 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 6.9 5.8 12.9 80.9 53.6 45.4 2.8 5.1 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.0 5.7 12.9 81.4 53.9 44.8 2.8 5.0 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.6 19.7 99.5 60.0 51.5 6.5 10.6 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.7 5.3 11.3 82.3 54.7 45.0 2.6 4.6 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------