***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-24.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 2.3 3.0 6.1 50.1 38.5 31.5 2.4 4.9 8.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.5 3.6 6.1 56.2 42.6 35.4 2.3 5.0 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 2.7 4.2 5.9 47.8 37.5 29.7 3.3 7.0 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.8 7.4 9.6 65.1 48.1 36.9 4.9 7.7 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 4.2 5.6 7.6 52.7 39.3 31.7 4.4 8.0 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 2.9 5.1 9.3 63.4 44.9 35.9 3.2 5.9 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.8 3.9 6.3 57.7 43.1 36.7 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 6.7 11.5 10.8 63.2 44.5 34.8 8.0 13.4 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 3.1 4.1 6.9 49.1 36.4 29.1 3.5 6.6 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 3.8 6.4 10.3 61.6 42.5 33.5 4.3 8.4 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 4.0 6.7 8.8 59.4 42.9 32.4 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 3.1 5.4 8.5 57.0 42.0 32.0 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 3.2 5.5 9.0 58.0 42.4 32.6 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 4.5 7.2 9.7 59.8 42.3 34.6 5.3 9.1 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.6 10.5 10.9 93.1 62.0 46.5 3.2 6.6 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 2.8 4.1 7.6 52.0 38.8 30.0 3.3 6.1 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.0 4.4 6.0 56.0 42.8 36.4 3.0 5.6 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 3.0 5.1 10.6 60.6 41.3 33.6 3.7 6.9 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 2.6 3.7 6.0 53.3 40.9 33.5 2.4 5.7 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 3.5 6.2 12.0 61.9 44.2 36.1 4.1 7.6 12.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 2.8 3.8 6.3 47.5 36.6 29.5 3.2 6.1 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.3 5.0 6.5 57.6 44.1 36.9 3.3 6.1 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 2.4 3.6 6.1 49.7 38.3 31.0 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 3.8 5.9 8.3 53.6 38.2 30.8 4.9 8.8 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 2.7 3.5 6.9 49.3 37.6 31.2 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.4 4.4 7.8 51.9 40.3 33.5 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 2.4 3.2 6.4 49.9 38.3 31.9 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.7 5.6 9.8 73.2 52.2 38.6 2.5 5.2 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 5.3 9.2 11.3 63.2 43.6 35.6 5.9 11.6 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.6 3.9 6.0 54.8 41.9 34.3 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------