***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2019.-31.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 15.5 16.0 13.7 1.0 61.7 58.7 13.3 14.9 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 15.7 16.6 14.1 1.4 66.6 62.1 13.7 15.2 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.5 13.9 0.8 59.7 56.8 14.1 15.6 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.0 7.9 10.4 0.5 55.3 53.7 5.9 7.4 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.8 11.4 0.1 51.7 50.9 14.0 15.7 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 12.7 14.7 8.9 0.0 50.3 49.4 13.0 14.6 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 16.4 16.3 14.0 1.4 66.6 62.2 13.6 15.0 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 1.9 3.6 9.2 -0.1 48.8 48.5 2.2 3.7 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.7 12.2 0.2 52.2 51.3 13.8 15.5 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 16.3 15.4 10.3 -0.2 48.5 48.5 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.6 11.4 0.0 50.3 49.8 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 12.8 14.9 10.4 0.1 51.6 50.7 13.1 14.8 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.0 10.6 0.2 51.8 51.0 14.1 15.8 17.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.2 12.3 0.3 53.0 51.6 14.2 15.9 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.6 12.4 0.7 58.5 55.9 13.4 14.9 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.3 10.9 0.2 52.3 51.3 14.3 16.0 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 14.7 15.6 13.9 1.5 67.6 62.8 12.8 14.2 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.2 9.9 0.1 50.6 49.8 13.5 15.2 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 15.8 16.6 14.1 1.3 65.1 60.8 13.7 15.3 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 8.1 10.1 7.4 0.1 51.2 50.0 8.4 10.0 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.9 13.1 0.3 53.7 52.4 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.7 16.4 13.7 1.1 63.3 59.5 13.7 15.2 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.8 14.0 1.1 62.5 58.6 14.2 15.7 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.3 15.9 12.1 0.2 52.4 51.2 14.1 15.7 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.7 12.0 0.6 56.8 54.9 13.7 15.2 16.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.8 9.6 0.5 55.8 53.7 13.7 15.3 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.9 16.2 13.0 0.8 60.1 57.5 13.9 15.4 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.7 11.1 0.5 55.3 53.5 13.6 15.2 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 10.8 10.2 9.1 0.1 50.9 50.1 8.3 10.1 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 15.6 16.5 14.0 1.3 65.4 61.4 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------