***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2019.-14.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.4 5.9 6.4 0.1 51.5 50.3 4.7 5.8 6.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.6 6.1 0.1 51.6 50.8 4.3 5.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.9 7.6 6.4 0.2 53.4 52.4 6.3 7.4 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -0.1 1.7 3.7 0.1 51.5 50.2 0.2 1.6 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.4 4.7 3.8 0.0 49.7 49.3 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.4 4.2 1.9 0.4 55.6 54.1 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.5 5.8 6.1 0.1 51.7 50.7 4.6 5.7 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -3.4 -1.8 1.7 0.1 50.9 51.7 -3.1 -1.9 -0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.1 5.3 4.1 0.0 50.5 50.3 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.2 5.4 2.5 0.1 50.9 51.3 4.4 5.4 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.0 5.3 3.2 0.1 51.8 51.1 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.6 4.1 2.5 0.1 51.9 51.8 2.9 4.0 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.6 5.0 2.0 0.0 50.8 51.0 3.8 4.9 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.8 5.8 3.9 -0.1 48.3 49.6 5.0 5.9 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.4 4.9 0.3 55.9 53.5 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 4.5 6.0 2.7 0.2 52.8 51.7 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.2 5.8 5.9 0.1 50.9 50.4 4.8 5.7 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 2.3 3.5 1.9 0.1 51.8 52.4 2.5 3.4 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.6 6.1 0.2 52.5 51.7 4.4 5.4 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -0.4 0.8 -0.3 0.0 50.0 52.2 -0.2 0.8 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.1 5.5 5.5 0.1 50.8 50.4 4.3 5.5 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 5.5 5.1 5.7 0.1 51.3 50.9 4.2 5.1 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.9 5.3 5.9 0.2 53.5 52.9 4.1 5.1 6.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.2 5.3 3.8 0.1 51.8 52.0 4.3 5.2 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.6 4.9 0.0 49.9 49.2 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.4 4.9 1.8 0.2 53.2 52.7 3.7 4.7 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 6.5 5.9 5.7 0.0 49.8 49.2 4.6 6.0 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.1 4.6 4.0 0.2 53.5 51.7 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 0.8 2.2 1.2 0.1 51.5 52.7 1.0 2.1 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.6 6.0 6.3 0.2 52.5 51.4 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------