***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-31.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 13.9 11.7 -1.5 33.8 41.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 13.2 13.7 11.6 -1.4 33.5 41.8 13.7 15.2 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 13.5 14.1 11.8 -1.5 33.8 41.3 14.1 15.6 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 5.2 6.1 10.3 -1.4 35.6 41.8 5.9 7.4 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 13.3 14.1 10.5 -1.5 34.6 41.3 14.0 15.7 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 12.3 13.4 8.9 -1.3 36.7 41.8 13.0 14.6 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 13.1 13.6 11.5 -1.5 33.1 41.8 13.6 15.0 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 1.7 2.5 9.2 -1.4 36.1 41.9 2.2 3.7 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 13.2 13.9 10.8 -1.6 33.7 40.7 13.8 15.5 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 13.4 14.1 9.8 -1.5 34.9 41.3 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 13.3 14.1 10.2 -1.5 34.9 41.4 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 12.5 13.3 10.0 -1.4 35.5 41.7 13.1 14.8 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 13.5 14.4 9.5 -1.4 36.0 42.0 14.1 15.8 17.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 13.8 14.4 10.8 -1.5 34.9 41.2 14.2 15.9 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 12.7 13.7 10.7 -1.2 36.6 42.0 13.4 14.9 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 13.6 14.6 9.9 -1.4 35.5 41.7 14.3 16.0 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 12.4 12.9 11.4 -1.4 33.3 41.6 12.8 14.2 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 13.0 13.8 9.2 -1.5 35.8 41.6 13.5 15.2 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 13.2 13.8 11.8 -1.5 33.8 41.6 13.7 15.3 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 7.8 9.0 7.1 -1.2 38.6 43.2 8.4 10.0 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 13.3 14.0 11.4 -1.6 33.6 41.0 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 13.1 13.8 11.6 -1.4 34.3 41.7 13.7 15.2 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 13.6 14.3 11.8 -1.5 34.2 41.3 14.2 15.7 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 13.5 14.2 10.6 -1.6 34.6 41.0 14.1 15.7 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 13.2 13.9 10.4 -1.4 34.8 42.0 13.7 15.2 16.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 13.2 14.1 9.3 -1.2 37.2 42.6 13.7 15.3 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 13.3 14.0 11.1 -1.4 34.5 42.2 13.9 15.4 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 12.8 13.9 10.5 -1.4 35.8 41.6 13.6 15.2 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 7.8 8.8 8.3 -1.4 37.2 42.5 8.3 10.1 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 13.1 13.7 11.7 -1.5 33.5 41.8 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------