***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 9999.0 13.6 13.3 1.6 67.7 65.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 13.3 14.4 13.0 1.4 65.3 63.6 11.0 12.8 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 15.4 15.8 14.0 2.1 71.6 69.4 11.4 13.3 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 7.9 8.0 11.5 2.0 68.9 67.5 2.8 5.3 7.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 15.9 16.3 13.0 2.5 73.3 71.7 11.1 13.3 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 15.0 15.5 11.0 2.7 74.1 72.7 9.9 12.1 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 13.0 14.0 12.6 1.2 64.0 62.3 10.7 12.5 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 4.2 4.4 11.3 2.5 72.3 70.9 -0.4 1.6 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 15.8 16.2 14.0 2.6 74.0 72.4 11.1 13.2 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 15.9 16.3 12.6 2.7 74.2 72.7 10.8 13.0 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 16.1 16.4 13.0 2.6 73.9 72.4 11.0 13.2 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 15.3 15.4 12.0 2.4 72.1 70.7 10.1 12.4 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 16.1 16.3 12.0 2.5 73.0 71.6 11.0 13.2 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 15.9 16.4 13.8 2.6 74.6 72.5 11.5 13.5 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 13.5 14.8 12.5 1.4 64.0 63.0 10.6 12.9 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 16.6 16.9 12.6 2.6 73.8 72.3 11.4 13.7 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 12.3 13.1 12.3 1.1 62.6 61.0 10.2 11.9 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 15.4 15.8 11.8 2.8 74.1 72.6 10.6 12.7 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 46 54 100 14.6 14.8 13.4 1.6 68.1 66.1 11.1 12.9 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 9.9 10.0 8.6 1.9 67.6 66.5 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 15.7 16.1 14.3 2.4 72.8 71.0 11.2 13.3 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 13.4 14.5 12.9 1.4 66.0 64.2 11.2 12.9 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 15.3 15.7 14.0 2.1 71.7 69.5 11.5 13.4 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 15.8 16.3 13.6 2.7 75.1 73.2 11.3 13.2 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 14.9 15.0 12.2 1.7 67.0 65.4 10.9 12.9 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 15.1 15.2 10.7 2.0 69.5 68.3 10.3 12.6 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 46 54 100 14.8 14.8 12.6 1.5 66.3 64.5 11.0 12.9 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 16.0 16.1 12.4 2.1 69.7 68.3 10.8 13.2 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 10.4 10.7 10.7 2.5 72.8 71.3 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 13.2 14.5 13.2 1.5 66.7 64.8 10.8 12.7 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------