***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 21.2 30.9 39.8 91.0 49.0 45.3 21.9 31.5 42.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 20.0 29.4 40.5 89.8 47.4 44.1 21.3 31.1 42.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 26.7 37.0 40.3 90.2 47.8 44.6 27.6 38.6 51.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 37.6 46.8 47.1 89.5 47.6 43.9 39.2 48.2 57.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 33.1 41.1 44.9 87.5 45.5 42.5 34.7 43.3 52.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 26.3 33.1 53.9 88.0 42.5 41.3 27.7 37.3 48.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 17.9 26.0 40.2 88.3 46.9 43.7 18.7 27.7 38.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 51.5 64.5 48.1 91.2 47.5 44.8 52.9 66.4 81.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 29.7 37.5 44.9 89.7 47.6 44.4 30.6 38.7 47.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 37.1 46.3 48.1 89.3 46.1 43.7 38.5 48.6 59.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 31.5 41.0 42.8 89.8 47.6 44.4 33.0 42.4 52.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 32.4 43.1 43.1 92.8 49.9 46.3 32.9 43.1 54.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 33.2 43.1 49.2 93.4 48.9 45.6 34.2 43.5 53.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 37.1 50.6 50.7 93.3 49.4 45.7 40.2 51.1 62.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 28.6 36.6 42.8 85.5 44.9 42.0 29.4 39.7 51.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 27.5 36.3 45.9 91.2 47.7 44.5 28.7 37.7 47.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 20.7 28.2 39.5 88.7 46.7 44.1 21.0 29.9 40.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 30.2 38.3 54.1 92.3 48.0 45.3 31.3 39.2 48.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 23.8 36.0 40.9 91.8 48.8 44.9 25.7 36.7 49.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 49.7 44.1 61.0 93.7 48.8 46.1 35.7 44.8 54.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 27.4 36.0 41.8 91.2 49.3 45.9 27.6 36.4 46.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 24.1 34.6 41.7 93.9 50.7 46.6 25.2 34.2 44.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 24.9 36.0 42.3 93.5 50.4 46.0 26.3 35.8 46.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 32.7 44.1 48.7 92.0 48.5 45.4 34.2 45.1 56.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 30.6 36.6 46.0 86.8 44.4 42.3 31.7 39.2 47.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 26.2 37.0 48.7 95.3 51.3 47.3 26.1 36.3 47.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 25.7 33.9 44.6 89.5 47.1 44.0 26.5 35.6 45.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 29.7 36.7 45.0 87.7 46.3 42.9 30.7 38.6 46.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 48.1 62.9 57.6 94.0 49.5 46.2 50.2 63.6 77.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 17.9 27.3 40.3 89.9 47.7 44.1 19.2 28.9 40.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------