***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 5.5 7.0 14.3 114.0 67.3 55.6 2.3 4.2 6.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.2 7.5 12.4 105.4 64.5 54.0 2.2 4.5 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.6 10.0 14.4 114.8 67.6 55.1 2.7 5.5 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.3 13.5 16.1 109.6 65.7 53.1 4.6 8.5 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.8 9.1 16.0 110.2 65.9 53.9 2.5 5.1 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.8 9.0 16.2 99.8 60.9 48.2 3.7 6.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.4 5.0 11.9 101.5 63.2 53.6 1.5 3.1 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 4.9 14.1 16.4 106.2 64.0 51.6 4.8 9.1 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.3 7.2 17.0 112.4 66.6 54.3 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.3 9.5 17.5 107.2 64.4 52.1 3.1 5.8 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.0 9.7 15.2 109.7 65.7 52.9 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.3 10.2 14.8 107.9 64.8 52.2 3.3 6.3 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.6 9.4 15.7 100.8 61.4 49.9 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.8 17.4 101.4 62.0 52.5 2.4 5.1 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 4.0 14.3 15.9 114.1 67.8 52.7 3.4 7.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.4 8.8 15.2 103.7 62.9 51.2 3.3 6.0 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 4.8 5.9 12.1 104.6 64.7 54.2 1.8 3.6 6.2 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 2.5 6.7 18.3 104.9 63.4 52.0 2.4 4.5 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.5 6.7 12.9 105.9 64.4 53.4 2.2 4.2 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.9 10.0 19.9 106.6 63.9 51.7 3.8 6.8 10.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.5 8.2 15.6 115.7 67.9 55.4 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 5.3 6.5 13.3 105.9 64.8 53.3 2.0 4.0 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.9 13.7 104.8 63.7 52.2 2.3 4.5 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.0 8.5 17.0 107.3 64.5 53.0 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.7 9.5 16.0 112.7 66.7 54.9 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.0 8.8 15.0 99.2 61.5 49.6 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.9 7.5 14.9 111.1 66.2 55.4 2.0 4.3 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.6 10.8 15.6 108.0 65.1 51.6 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.5 12.6 18.7 105.0 63.4 52.1 4.2 8.2 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 5.9 7.2 13.0 107.9 65.3 54.8 2.3 4.4 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------