***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-08.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.1 14.1 -0.3 46.3 47.7 15.9 17.5 18.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 18.2 17.2 13.8 -0.4 44.7 46.1 16.2 17.6 18.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.5 17.6 14.5 -0.3 46.9 48.0 16.4 17.9 19.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.9 9.9 12.0 -0.2 47.4 48.7 8.4 10.2 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 18.9 18.0 12.8 -0.2 47.8 49.1 16.6 18.3 19.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 17.3 16.7 10.9 0.1 50.8 51.3 14.9 16.7 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 17.9 16.9 13.8 -0.5 44.1 45.8 16.1 17.4 18.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.0 11.1 -0.2 47.9 49.0 3.7 5.2 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 18.4 17.7 13.2 -0.1 48.4 49.5 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 18.5 17.7 12.0 -0.1 48.5 49.4 16.2 17.9 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 18.5 17.7 12.5 -0.2 47.7 49.0 16.2 17.9 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 17.5 16.6 12.0 -0.2 47.5 48.8 15.2 16.9 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 18.3 17.6 11.4 -0.1 49.0 50.1 16.0 17.7 19.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 18.4 17.6 13.1 -0.3 47.0 47.9 16.3 17.8 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 18.2 17.4 12.7 -0.2 47.4 48.6 16.2 17.6 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 18.8 18.1 12.1 -0.1 48.5 49.8 16.5 18.2 19.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 17.2 16.3 13.6 -0.5 43.5 45.2 15.5 16.7 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 18.0 17.3 11.7 -0.1 48.5 49.3 15.9 17.4 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 18.1 17.2 14.1 -0.3 46.1 47.1 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.3 11.6 8.8 -0.1 48.6 49.0 10.3 11.8 13.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 18.7 17.8 14.0 -0.2 47.6 48.8 16.4 18.0 19.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 18.0 17.0 13.7 -0.5 44.5 45.9 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 18.3 17.6 14.4 -0.2 47.8 48.3 16.3 17.8 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 18.3 17.6 13.1 -0.2 47.8 48.7 16.2 17.8 19.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 18.3 17.5 12.7 -0.3 47.0 48.3 16.3 17.7 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 17.4 16.7 11.2 0.0 49.9 51.0 15.1 16.7 18.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 18.4 17.5 13.5 -0.3 46.5 47.9 16.3 17.8 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 18.5 17.6 12.3 -0.2 47.8 49.0 16.2 17.8 19.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 12.6 11.9 10.7 -0.2 48.1 48.9 10.5 12.0 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.1 14.0 -0.4 45.3 46.6 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------