***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 14.7 16.0 14.2 3.4 84.9 83.4 9.7 11.6 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 15.0 16.2 14.4 3.4 86.0 84.8 10.2 11.9 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 15.3 16.8 14.9 3.9 86.7 85.4 10.3 12.1 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 6.5 7.1 10.0 2.6 75.6 73.9 1.8 3.8 5.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 15.1 16.3 12.8 3.7 84.2 83.0 10.2 12.1 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 13.7 14.8 10.8 3.7 84.1 82.7 9.0 10.8 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 14.6 15.9 14.2 3.4 85.9 84.6 9.8 11.6 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 4.1 5.0 11.1 3.8 83.3 82.2 -0.5 1.2 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 15.2 16.7 14.2 4.1 86.6 85.5 10.1 11.9 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 15.2 16.6 12.6 4.2 85.8 84.6 10.0 11.9 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 15.1 16.5 13.5 4.1 85.6 84.4 10.0 11.9 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 14.4 15.4 11.8 3.6 83.1 82.0 9.4 11.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 1 99 100 15.3 16.0 12.8 3.7 83.1 82.0 10.4 12.2 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 16.0 17.3 14.5 4.2 86.0 85.1 10.6 12.6 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 14.0 14.8 12.6 2.6 77.5 75.3 9.3 11.3 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 15.5 16.6 12.6 3.8 84.5 83.2 10.7 12.5 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 3 97 100 14.2 15.5 13.9 3.3 86.1 84.7 9.5 11.2 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 15.0 16.2 11.8 4.0 84.6 83.6 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 15.1 16.5 14.6 3.6 86.4 85.3 10.1 11.9 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 10.3 10.8 9.0 3.2 79.7 78.8 5.4 7.3 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 15.2 16.5 14.8 3.8 85.9 84.6 10.3 12.1 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 15.3 16.7 14.2 3.4 85.7 84.6 10.2 12.1 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 15.5 17.1 15.0 4.0 87.2 86.2 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 15.6 17.0 14.3 4.2 86.4 85.4 10.5 12.3 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 14.4 15.6 13.0 3.3 83.3 81.6 9.7 11.5 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 14.8 15.4 10.5 3.2 81.2 80.1 10.2 11.9 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 14.6 15.8 13.6 3.3 84.5 83.1 9.9 11.7 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 14.6 15.4 11.4 2.8 77.4 75.6 9.4 11.6 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 4 96 100 10.2 11.1 11.0 3.7 82.3 81.4 5.1 7.0 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 14.7 16.0 14.4 3.5 86.1 84.9 9.9 11.7 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------