***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 17.3 15.7 1.0 60.4 58.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 17.8 18.1 15.5 1.0 61.2 58.5 16.1 17.3 18.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 18.0 18.3 15.8 1.0 60.7 58.3 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.4 13.9 0.9 59.7 57.8 7.9 9.5 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 18.3 18.5 14.2 1.0 59.9 58.0 16.1 17.6 19.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 18.1 17.1 12.4 1.0 59.4 57.9 14.6 16.2 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 17.6 17.8 15.4 1.0 61.1 58.4 15.9 17.1 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.6 12.7 0.9 59.0 57.4 3.5 4.9 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 17.9 18.1 14.7 1.0 60.0 58.1 15.8 17.3 18.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.9 18.1 13.5 1.0 59.4 57.7 15.7 17.3 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 18.0 18.2 13.8 1.0 60.1 58.2 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 17.0 17.1 13.4 0.9 59.1 57.5 14.7 16.3 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 19.0 18.0 13.0 0.9 58.9 57.5 15.6 17.2 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 17.9 18.2 14.6 1.0 60.0 58.0 16.0 17.4 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 17.4 17.7 14.1 0.9 60.3 58.3 15.4 16.8 18.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 19.4 18.5 13.5 1.0 59.8 58.1 16.0 17.6 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 16.8 17.1 15.3 0.9 61.1 58.5 15.4 16.4 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.7 12.9 1.0 59.2 57.6 15.5 16.9 18.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 17.7 18.0 15.7 1.0 61.2 58.5 15.9 17.1 18.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.1 10.4 0.9 58.5 56.9 10.0 11.4 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 18.1 18.3 15.3 1.0 60.1 58.0 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 17.6 17.9 15.4 0.9 60.5 58.1 16.0 17.2 18.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 18.0 18.3 15.7 1.0 61.0 58.5 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 17.9 18.2 14.5 1.0 60.0 58.0 15.9 17.3 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 17.8 18.0 14.2 0.9 59.3 57.4 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 18.1 17.1 12.5 0.7 57.9 56.6 14.8 16.4 17.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 18.0 18.2 14.9 0.9 59.6 57.5 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.9 14.1 1.0 60.1 58.2 15.3 17.0 18.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.3 11.9 1.0 59.3 57.6 10.1 11.5 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 17.7 18.0 15.7 1.0 61.1 58.5 16.0 17.2 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------