***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 5.5 4.6 1.2 68.6 62.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 4.7 4.7 4.4 1.2 68.5 63.0 2.3 3.5 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 7.0 7.1 4.4 1.2 69.7 63.8 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 1.3 1.6 2.3 1.4 74.7 67.3 -1.4 -0.2 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 4.6 5.1 2.4 1.4 74.7 66.8 1.5 2.9 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 3.5 3.8 0.7 1.4 73.8 68.2 0.7 2.0 3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.0 4.9 4.5 1.3 69.1 63.6 2.6 3.6 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 -1.6 -1.8 0.7 0.9 67.5 62.2 -4.8 -3.3 -1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 5.2 5.6 3.0 1.4 73.4 65.7 2.6 3.8 5.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 5.1 5.1 1.4 1.1 69.5 63.6 2.7 3.8 4.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 5.0 5.3 2.0 1.3 73.5 66.1 2.3 3.6 4.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 3.5 3.6 1.6 1.1 70.7 64.3 0.8 2.1 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 4.5 4.8 1.2 1.3 73.4 67.3 1.8 3.1 4.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.9 2.8 0.9 66.4 61.1 2.9 3.9 4.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 5.0 5.3 2.8 1.4 75.0 68.0 2.8 3.8 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 5.7 6.0 1.6 1.3 74.6 67.5 2.8 4.1 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.1 4.6 4.3 1.1 67.3 62.1 2.9 3.7 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 2.7 2.4 0.6 0.9 65.3 60.9 0.4 1.5 2.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 3.9 4.6 4.3 1.1 68.0 62.7 2.3 3.5 4.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -2.6 -0.4 -1.3 0.7 60.8 58.7 -2.4 -1.2 -0.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 5.0 5.3 3.9 1.3 71.6 64.6 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 3.3 3.9 4.2 1.0 65.4 60.6 1.9 3.0 3.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 3.4 4.2 4.0 1.1 67.7 62.5 1.9 3.0 4.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 4.6 4.5 2.6 1.0 67.9 62.2 2.3 3.4 4.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 5.3 5.4 3.0 1.2 70.5 63.9 2.4 3.7 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 4.3 4.4 1.3 1.1 70.5 64.9 1.8 2.9 4.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 5.7 5.8 3.9 1.2 69.1 63.1 2.7 4.1 5.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 3.7 4.1 2.5 1.5 75.7 68.4 1.1 2.2 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -0.9 1.6 -0.1 0.7 62.7 59.5 -0.7 0.6 1.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 5.3 5.3 4.5 1.2 68.8 63.4 2.8 4.0 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------