***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2020.-22.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.4 8.0 13.6 111.1 66.5 52.4 2.6 4.8 7.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.7 9.0 12.5 110.1 66.2 49.9 2.6 5.1 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.8 13.7 15.2 121.0 69.8 54.6 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.9 12.9 17.2 121.1 70.0 58.0 5.2 8.1 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.0 13.4 16.7 121.4 69.9 57.7 4.8 8.0 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.1 11.4 17.6 125.9 71.4 55.2 3.0 5.8 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.0 8.5 11.7 105.6 64.7 49.7 2.9 5.4 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 9.4 23.0 17.4 122.3 70.1 55.3 9.1 14.3 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.3 12.4 17.1 123.5 70.6 57.0 4.7 7.5 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.1 16.6 17.3 122.1 70.1 55.3 5.7 9.8 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.6 14.2 16.6 121.6 69.9 57.5 5.2 8.6 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.7 15.9 16.8 127.1 71.7 58.6 4.3 8.0 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.1 12.9 17.6 125.6 71.2 57.7 4.0 7.2 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.7 15.7 18.8 122.0 70.0 53.7 5.7 9.4 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 8.4 12.6 15.7 121.7 70.5 57.4 2.6 5.6 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.4 11.6 16.9 124.5 70.9 58.0 4.0 6.7 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.2 9.5 12.4 114.4 67.9 50.4 3.0 5.6 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.4 14.0 18.3 123.0 70.4 54.8 4.8 8.1 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.8 11.4 13.5 114.4 67.6 51.8 2.6 5.7 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.5 13.5 20.6 116.9 68.2 53.9 4.8 8.2 12.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 8.9 11.8 16.1 121.3 69.8 55.6 4.0 6.9 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.9 11.5 14.2 125.0 71.2 53.8 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.9 9.6 15.0 116.8 68.3 53.0 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 6.1 19.0 18.3 127.0 71.7 54.9 6.0 10.4 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.7 8.9 16.0 114.2 67.4 54.9 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.2 11.5 17.3 123.0 70.4 56.3 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.1 8.7 14.6 111.9 66.7 53.9 2.8 5.3 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.9 10.2 16.3 122.3 70.5 57.2 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.0 24.0 19.1 121.8 69.9 54.9 8.3 14.1 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.2 9.8 12.9 111.1 66.4 51.2 2.7 5.6 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------