***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.0 3.6 3.6 -0.1 48.4 48.7 2.3 3.7 5.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 3.8 3.2 3.4 -0.1 49.2 49.2 2.1 3.3 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.3 5.6 3.7 0.0 50.3 49.9 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 -2.0 -0.7 0.7 -0.3 46.3 47.2 -1.7 -0.4 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 0.9 2.4 1.0 -0.3 46.1 47.2 1.3 2.7 4.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 0.1 1.5 -1.2 -0.3 46.3 47.9 0.5 1.8 3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.8 3.3 3.3 -0.1 48.1 48.5 2.3 3.4 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -5.5 -3.8 -1.0 -0.2 47.4 48.8 -5.1 -3.6 -2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 2.0 3.4 1.4 -0.2 47.6 48.2 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 2.1 3.4 -0.2 -0.2 47.8 48.6 2.5 3.6 4.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 1.8 3.1 0.3 -0.3 45.9 47.3 2.2 3.4 4.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 0.3 1.7 -0.2 -0.2 46.9 48.6 0.6 1.9 3.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 1.2 2.6 -0.8 -0.4 45.4 47.8 1.6 2.9 4.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 4.3 3.9 1.5 0.1 51.0 50.7 2.8 3.8 4.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.4 3.4 1.8 -0.2 46.6 47.2 2.6 3.6 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.2 3.6 -0.3 -0.4 45.3 47.0 2.6 3.9 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 3.9 3.4 3.2 -0.2 47.8 48.1 2.6 3.5 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 0.1 1.4 -0.8 0.0 50.2 50.1 0.3 1.4 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 3.8 3.3 3.4 0.0 50.1 49.8 2.1 3.3 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 -3.1 -1.5 -2.7 -0.2 47.4 48.8 -2.7 -1.4 -0.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 1.9 3.3 2.8 -0.1 48.2 48.6 2.2 3.5 4.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 3.3 2.8 3.1 -0.1 48.8 48.9 1.8 2.9 3.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 1.6 3.0 3.3 0.1 50.9 50.3 1.8 2.9 4.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 2.0 3.3 1.2 0.1 51.3 50.8 2.2 3.3 4.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 1.8 3.3 2.2 -0.2 47.3 48.2 2.1 3.5 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 1.3 2.5 -1.0 -0.4 44.4 47.7 1.6 2.9 4.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 1.9 3.6 3.0 -0.2 47.3 48.4 2.3 3.8 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 0.6 1.8 0.8 -0.3 45.3 46.4 0.9 2.2 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 -1.3 0.5 -1.3 0.0 50.2 50.4 -0.9 0.5 1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.3 3.7 3.5 0.0 49.6 49.5 2.5 3.8 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------