***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-05.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 14.9 15.4 27.7 62.6 27.4 27.7 17.6 24.7 32.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 13.2 14.6 27.4 65.4 29.7 29.2 16.0 24.1 33.7 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 19.9 20.5 29.1 64.6 27.4 27.9 23.7 34.3 46.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 27.6 30.7 33.9 66.6 30.2 29.3 32.2 40.7 49.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 23.8 27.8 37.4 74.6 36.1 34.2 26.4 34.9 44.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 37.6 31.8 50.0 88.8 46.3 43.5 26.1 33.6 41.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 10.7 11.6 26.9 64.6 29.0 28.7 13.3 21.0 30.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 45.4 52.5 42.3 81.3 39.2 37.7 48.7 59.6 71.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 21.6 24.6 37.2 74.1 35.4 34.4 23.4 32.0 41.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 28.0 32.8 42.0 78.2 36.8 36.1 30.6 40.7 52.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 23.6 29.6 35.7 76.4 37.0 34.9 27.4 37.6 49.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 24.0 30.0 36.4 80.2 39.6 37.0 26.4 35.9 46.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 42.5 37.8 46.1 91.8 49.3 45.1 29.9 38.2 47.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 29.4 29.8 37.2 65.8 25.5 26.9 34.5 45.3 57.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 20.9 27.3 36.6 76.0 39.7 36.6 22.9 34.2 48.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 24.5 31.3 41.7 86.5 45.3 41.2 26.0 33.4 41.6 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 12.9 14.8 26.7 66.4 32.8 31.2 14.9 23.0 32.9 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 23.5 26.7 46.9 79.3 36.2 36.4 25.3 33.4 42.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 14.6 16.6 28.5 66.1 29.9 29.3 18.1 27.3 38.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 25.4 28.7 52.9 80.8 35.9 36.6 27.2 36.1 46.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 20.1 21.9 31.3 67.4 30.7 30.4 23.0 31.7 41.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 15.5 18.0 28.3 67.5 33.4 31.9 17.8 25.3 34.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 18.4 20.4 31.3 67.8 29.9 29.5 21.8 29.5 38.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 29.5 31.6 39.0 72.0 31.1 31.7 32.7 42.9 54.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 20.2 23.1 34.3 67.1 30.4 29.6 24.2 31.8 40.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 20.6 26.3 42.4 85.8 44.4 41.9 20.7 29.4 39.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 16.6 17.7 31.2 63.7 27.5 27.6 20.0 27.6 36.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 20.2 25.1 37.0 75.0 37.7 35.1 22.9 31.2 40.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 41.1 46.5 49.5 80.1 36.2 36.7 44.0 57.3 72.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 12.6 13.3 27.2 63.6 27.5 27.6 15.6 23.5 33.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------