***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 15.0 14.7 13.4 0.2 52.1 52.6 13.1 14.5 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.0 14.7 13.4 0.1 51.8 52.3 13.2 14.5 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.1 13.4 0.0 49.6 51.1 13.7 15.1 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 7.6 6.8 11.3 -0.2 47.4 49.4 5.5 7.0 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.0 11.6 -0.3 47.0 49.6 13.8 15.3 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 15.0 13.8 9.6 -0.4 45.6 48.7 12.5 14.3 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.6 13.4 0.3 53.1 53.2 13.1 14.3 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 1.4 2.5 9.9 -0.7 41.7 46.0 1.7 3.3 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.7 14.8 12.1 -0.3 47.0 49.7 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.7 14.5 10.8 -0.6 43.7 47.3 13.5 15.1 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.8 14.7 11.2 -0.4 45.2 48.6 13.6 15.1 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 12.3 13.7 10.8 -0.6 43.1 47.3 12.6 14.3 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 13.3 14.7 10.3 -0.5 44.4 48.2 13.6 15.2 16.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.0 12.1 -0.4 46.0 48.4 13.9 15.3 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.3 11.4 -0.3 46.7 48.3 13.3 14.6 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.1 10.8 -0.4 45.1 48.5 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.6 13.1 0.1 51.5 52.0 12.3 13.5 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.3 13.9 10.1 -0.8 42.0 45.9 13.1 14.7 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 15.2 14.7 13.4 0.0 50.6 51.6 13.4 14.7 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.3 8.2 7.3 -1.2 37.0 41.8 7.8 9.4 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.0 12.9 -0.1 48.7 50.6 13.7 15.1 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.5 13.2 -0.1 49.2 50.3 13.2 14.5 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.0 13.3 -0.1 48.8 50.5 13.7 15.0 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.7 14.7 11.9 -0.5 45.2 48.2 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.2 14.9 11.9 0.1 51.2 52.1 13.5 14.8 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 12.8 14.2 9.9 -0.4 44.6 48.3 13.1 14.7 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.3 15.0 12.7 0.3 53.0 53.2 13.5 14.8 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 15.5 14.5 11.3 -0.4 45.8 48.2 13.4 14.9 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.6 8.8 9.1 -0.8 41.9 45.7 7.9 9.6 11.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.6 13.5 0.2 51.8 52.5 13.2 14.5 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------