***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-21.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 4.7 7.1 16.5 138.0 74.8 61.6 2.4 3.8 5.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 5.8 8.9 14.9 133.6 73.7 59.4 2.3 4.3 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 11.8 13.9 17.1 141.6 75.8 63.4 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.5 11.4 17.1 121.6 70.4 59.2 4.5 7.1 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 11.5 13.1 18.0 132.7 73.4 63.1 4.6 7.4 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 9.7 11.6 18.9 141.0 75.9 62.3 2.6 5.0 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 7.5 8.0 14.2 129.1 72.4 58.7 2.3 4.1 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 20.2 22.6 18.6 133.8 73.7 65.2 7.9 12.8 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 10.3 11.7 18.4 133.8 73.8 63.2 3.7 6.2 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 14.7 17.3 19.5 138.7 75.1 66.0 4.6 8.2 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 11.7 13.2 17.9 132.4 73.3 64.1 3.7 6.6 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 13.1 14.9 17.1 132.9 73.4 64.1 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 11.2 13.3 19.1 142.4 76.1 64.9 4.0 6.7 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 12.4 15.0 22.4 149.0 77.8 66.6 3.6 6.5 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.0 8.5 15.3 112.0 67.8 54.6 1.6 3.9 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 9.9 11.1 18.1 133.9 73.7 63.3 3.4 5.8 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.8 6.8 13.2 119.3 69.7 57.0 1.6 3.4 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 12.2 14.2 20.3 139.0 75.0 66.3 3.8 6.8 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 10.0 11.3 15.5 136.6 74.5 60.5 2.2 4.6 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 12.7 14.2 22.3 138.0 74.1 66.4 4.3 7.4 11.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.5 11.3 17.8 135.6 74.2 62.5 3.8 6.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 5.5 8.2 14.3 121.8 70.3 58.1 2.1 4.1 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 8.2 9.4 17.3 144.2 76.5 63.6 2.0 3.9 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 15.4 17.6 20.1 140.2 75.4 65.2 5.0 8.7 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 5.5 8.5 18.3 129.9 72.6 61.2 2.2 4.2 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 7.6 11.5 17.5 128.1 72.1 59.4 3.5 6.1 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.6 8.9 17.3 135.0 74.0 61.2 2.4 4.4 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.2 7.8 16.3 119.8 69.9 58.1 1.7 3.7 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 21.8 25.6 21.3 141.9 75.8 67.7 6.6 11.8 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 9.1 10.5 15.5 138.7 75.0 61.0 2.4 4.6 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------