***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 5.0 5.0 5.2 0.5 57.5 56.2 3.5 4.5 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.5 4.8 4.8 0.4 55.7 55.1 3.7 4.6 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 5.7 7.4 5.1 0.4 56.7 56.0 5.9 6.9 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 1.3 1.4 2.6 0.6 58.6 57.4 -0.3 0.9 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.8 2.8 0.5 57.5 56.9 2.1 3.2 4.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 2.8 2.9 0.7 0.6 58.6 59.0 1.4 2.4 3.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.6 4.9 4.9 0.5 56.5 55.6 3.8 4.6 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -4.0 -2.2 0.8 0.4 56.5 56.9 -3.8 -2.6 -1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.7 3.1 0.5 57.5 57.2 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.2 4.8 1.5 0.5 57.0 57.2 3.4 4.4 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 4.5 4.4 2.2 0.4 56.8 56.7 2.9 4.0 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 3.1 3.0 1.5 0.4 56.6 56.8 1.5 2.6 3.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 3.9 3.8 1.0 0.4 56.7 57.5 2.3 3.4 4.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 3.8 5.4 3.0 0.5 57.9 57.3 4.0 4.9 5.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.8 5.0 3.6 0.6 60.1 58.1 3.4 4.4 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.2 5.2 1.6 0.4 57.0 57.2 3.6 4.7 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.0 4.6 0.4 55.4 54.5 3.9 4.7 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 0.9 2.4 0.9 0.5 57.4 57.6 1.1 2.0 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.4 4.8 4.8 0.4 55.8 55.3 3.6 4.5 5.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 0.9 -0.1 -1.1 0.4 55.8 56.9 -1.6 -0.5 0.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 4.6 4.6 4.4 0.5 57.2 56.6 3.0 4.2 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.2 4.1 4.4 0.4 55.7 55.0 3.0 3.8 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 4.4 4.3 4.7 0.4 56.6 55.8 3.1 4.0 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.0 4.7 2.7 0.5 57.7 57.3 3.2 4.2 5.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.9 5.0 3.9 0.6 57.9 56.8 3.4 4.5 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 3.8 3.8 0.9 0.4 56.5 57.4 2.4 3.4 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.6 5.6 4.7 0.6 58.1 56.8 3.8 5.0 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 2.9 3.1 2.8 0.6 59.1 57.8 1.4 2.5 3.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.1 2.1 0.3 0.5 57.2 57.7 0.4 1.6 2.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.7 5.3 4.9 0.4 56.3 55.5 3.9 4.9 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------