***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 29.3 31.5 59.1 107.9 62.6 55.2 18.5 25.4 33.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 28.1 30.3 50.9 107.0 62.1 56.1 15.5 23.3 32.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 40.1 47.3 61.5 113.2 66.2 58.9 23.5 34.3 47.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 43.2 50.2 73.9 116.4 68.5 60.6 29.9 38.8 48.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 46.4 47.9 73.9 119.1 70.5 62.7 25.2 34.3 44.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 37.4 43.8 76.4 115.3 68.5 61.5 25.6 33.6 42.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 24.8 26.8 49.8 106.9 62.0 56.1 13.0 20.3 29.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 77.2 83.9 85.2 128.0 77.1 68.5 49.4 60.9 73.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 44.2 45.6 74.8 120.8 71.6 64.0 22.5 31.2 41.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 57.5 63.3 86.7 126.9 76.4 67.9 30.9 41.4 53.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 54.3 57.8 76.9 124.1 73.8 65.7 27.1 37.6 50.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 50.0 52.8 74.4 123.4 73.7 65.4 25.4 35.1 45.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 51.4 53.2 80.0 118.9 71.2 63.0 29.0 38.4 49.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 61.0 65.2 83.2 121.6 72.4 64.1 34.5 45.9 59.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 52.0 51.0 69.1 118.3 69.1 61.2 20.4 32.3 47.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 45.1 45.9 75.2 118.3 70.3 62.5 26.2 34.3 43.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 14.5 27.4 47.1 103.5 59.8 55.1 14.5 22.1 31.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 47.4 52.3 89.7 125.4 76.0 67.2 24.9 33.8 44.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 33.3 36.9 53.6 108.4 63.0 56.9 20.0 28.7 39.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 47.5 52.3 100.0 124.2 75.4 67.7 25.7 34.5 44.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 34.8 42.5 67.9 116.6 68.6 60.8 21.2 30.1 40.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 28.5 29.5 50.0 103.4 59.6 54.4 16.9 24.5 33.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 34.0 38.6 59.6 111.9 65.3 58.8 22.5 30.3 39.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 58.9 62.7 79.3 122.8 73.4 64.8 32.0 43.1 55.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 35.2 38.7 68.9 110.4 64.4 56.1 23.2 31.0 39.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 42.2 41.3 75.0 117.4 69.9 62.2 19.6 28.3 38.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 32.2 34.9 62.3 108.4 63.0 55.0 20.4 27.9 36.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 43.3 43.5 73.0 118.3 69.6 61.9 21.2 30.1 40.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 77.1 84.2 92.7 124.6 75.6 67.3 41.8 56.2 71.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 29.7 32.0 53.0 107.5 62.4 56.0 17.5 25.2 34.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------