***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.4 3.5 2.9 -0.5 42.4 46.5 2.8 4.1 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.4 3.3 2.7 -0.6 41.2 45.4 2.8 3.8 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 4.6 5.6 2.9 -0.6 41.2 46.0 5.0 6.1 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -1.4 -0.6 -0.1 -0.8 38.6 44.8 -1.1 0.2 1.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 1.5 2.4 0.3 -0.6 40.8 46.7 1.8 3.1 4.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 0.9 1.9 -1.8 -0.4 43.7 47.3 1.1 2.3 3.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 2.5 3.5 2.7 -0.6 41.5 45.4 2.9 4.0 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -4.9 -3.9 -2.0 -0.7 40.1 46.6 -4.5 -3.1 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 2.4 3.5 0.7 -0.5 42.2 47.5 2.8 4.0 5.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 2.6 3.4 -1.1 -0.7 40.4 46.7 2.9 4.1 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.3 3.2 -0.4 -0.6 41.6 47.2 2.6 3.8 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 0.8 1.8 -1.0 -0.5 42.8 47.9 1.1 2.3 3.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 1.9 2.9 -1.3 -0.4 44.0 48.1 2.1 3.3 4.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 3.0 3.7 0.4 -0.6 41.2 46.0 3.2 4.3 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.6 3.7 1.3 -0.5 41.5 46.3 3.2 4.1 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.1 4.0 -0.8 -0.5 42.7 47.2 3.3 4.5 5.6 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.9 3.6 2.6 -0.6 40.9 45.1 3.2 4.1 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 0.3 1.0 -2.0 -0.8 38.7 45.5 0.6 1.7 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.3 3.2 2.7 -0.6 41.0 45.5 2.7 3.8 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -2.4 -1.7 -4.0 -0.9 38.0 45.2 -2.1 -0.8 0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 2.1 3.2 2.1 -0.5 42.3 46.9 2.5 3.8 5.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.0 2.7 2.3 -0.6 40.4 45.1 2.3 3.3 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 2.1 2.8 2.4 -0.6 40.9 45.8 2.4 3.4 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.3 3.0 0.2 -0.7 40.1 45.8 2.6 3.7 4.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.4 3.4 1.4 -0.6 41.8 46.5 2.8 4.0 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 1.9 3.0 -1.4 -0.3 45.3 48.8 2.1 3.3 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.8 3.9 2.3 -0.5 42.8 46.7 3.1 4.5 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 1.2 1.8 0.2 -0.7 39.8 45.4 1.4 2.5 3.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 -0.8 0.0 -2.7 -0.9 38.2 45.0 -0.4 0.9 2.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.7 3.7 2.8 -0.6 41.4 45.5 3.1 4.3 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------