***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2019.-10.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 13.3 16.1 14.4 5.1 89.2 86.8 6.8 9.2 11.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 13.1 15.5 14.2 4.9 88.7 86.1 7.2 9.4 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 13.9 16.2 15.0 5.3 88.1 86.0 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 6.2 9.2 11.8 5.6 90.3 88.4 0.0 2.3 4.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 14.1 16.1 13.2 4.9 86.5 84.8 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 12.7 15.1 11.9 5.1 87.7 85.8 6.8 9.1 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 6 94 100 12.8 15.1 13.9 4.7 88.3 85.7 7.0 9.2 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 3.2 4.3 10.9 4.2 82.3 81.0 -2.2 -0.1 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 14.1 16.3 14.4 5.2 87.4 85.6 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 13.8 15.0 12.1 4.4 81.8 80.5 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 14.3 16.3 14.0 5.2 86.8 85.1 7.9 10.2 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 13.4 15.4 12.4 4.8 86.7 85.0 7.3 9.6 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 14.3 16.1 13.2 4.7 85.8 84.1 8.2 10.5 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 14.5 16.3 14.2 5.0 85.3 83.5 8.0 10.4 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 13.5 17.1 14.2 6.1 91.9 89.9 7.0 9.4 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 14.6 16.7 13.2 5.0 86.9 85.2 8.4 10.7 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 12.6 14.8 13.6 4.7 88.5 85.8 6.9 9.0 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 13.4 14.6 11.5 4.4 81.8 80.5 7.4 9.7 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 13.4 15.8 14.5 5.0 88.4 86.0 7.1 9.4 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 8.4 9.0 8.4 3.3 77.9 76.8 3.1 5.2 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 14.0 16.1 14.9 5.1 87.4 85.4 7.8 10.1 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 13.4 15.6 13.8 4.7 87.7 85.3 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 14.1 16.4 14.9 5.3 88.2 86.0 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 14.4 16.3 14.2 5.1 85.7 84.0 7.9 10.3 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 13.2 15.7 13.5 5.1 88.8 86.6 7.2 9.4 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 13.7 16.0 11.4 4.8 88.6 86.9 7.9 10.1 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 13.5 15.8 13.7 4.8 88.1 85.7 7.4 9.7 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 14.0 17.3 13.1 5.8 90.6 88.7 7.2 9.7 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 8.7 9.8 10.7 4.2 81.8 80.5 2.8 5.1 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 13.0 15.4 14.4 4.9 88.5 86.0 7.2 9.4 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------