***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 2.9 10.4 71.1 48.2 41.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.4 3.7 8.8 59.9 44.4 39.5 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.7 6.7 11.3 75.3 50.5 44.1 3.3 6.5 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.1 13.4 83.8 55.5 47.4 4.5 7.8 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.1 7.2 13.9 85.7 55.1 46.4 2.7 5.9 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.4 13.6 91.8 57.4 50.0 2.4 4.9 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.0 2.8 8.1 56.5 42.1 37.5 2.0 3.8 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.7 15.6 93.6 58.4 50.9 6.2 11.3 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.6 6.1 14.1 88.4 56.4 47.5 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.7 15.5 92.8 58.1 50.2 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.3 14.3 92.3 58.0 48.8 2.6 5.5 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.5 6.4 13.8 90.3 57.4 49.2 2.6 5.0 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 8.6 7.8 13.5 86.0 55.0 47.4 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.4 10.7 14.6 82.6 53.0 47.2 4.9 9.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.7 7.1 13.4 91.3 60.5 52.1 2.3 4.8 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.7 6.9 13.3 85.8 54.9 46.6 3.3 5.9 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.8 2.3 7.8 52.1 40.3 36.0 1.7 3.3 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.5 7.5 15.8 87.2 54.5 48.6 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.0 4.8 9.7 64.9 46.5 41.3 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 7.0 6.3 18.7 88.3 55.3 50.0 2.3 5.0 9.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.0 6.5 12.9 84.7 55.0 46.6 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.3 3.1 9.1 58.1 43.4 39.0 2.1 3.8 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.8 5.0 11.3 72.3 49.3 43.9 2.5 5.2 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.3 8.7 14.2 83.6 53.1 47.0 3.7 7.7 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.8 4.6 11.6 70.6 46.1 40.1 2.6 5.2 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 5.8 5.3 13.9 87.6 55.5 49.2 2.1 4.4 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.5 3.9 10.3 65.7 43.7 38.4 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.9 7.7 13.3 88.9 58.2 49.5 2.9 5.7 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.5 10.7 16.2 84.4 53.0 48.0 5.2 9.7 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.8 4.4 9.3 63.8 46.3 41.0 2.6 4.9 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------