***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 3.7 2.7 10.4 69.6 47.3 41.3 1.8 2.9 4.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 3.8 2.4 9.1 64.1 45.8 40.1 1.5 2.8 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.4 4.5 11.3 74.7 49.5 42.9 2.2 4.6 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.0 6.6 13.3 76.4 51.4 43.8 3.8 6.4 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.0 14.0 81.8 53.0 45.4 2.4 4.6 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 5.7 6.1 16.7 95.6 59.6 52.5 2.5 4.6 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 3.5 2.5 8.9 64.5 45.9 40.4 1.7 2.8 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.0 16.6 92.1 56.8 49.2 5.7 9.3 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.8 5.6 14.4 83.5 53.5 45.7 2.6 5.0 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.6 7.4 16.3 89.3 55.4 47.7 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.6 14.1 86.7 55.7 48.0 3.0 6.2 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.3 14.5 91.8 57.8 49.9 3.0 5.0 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 7.0 6.9 14.9 91.3 57.6 50.6 3.0 5.4 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 9.0 6.5 14.5 76.5 49.4 43.4 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.6 4.9 12.6 73.1 52.3 43.7 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.4 14.4 88.7 57.0 49.6 2.9 5.2 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 3.5 2.4 8.1 59.5 43.8 38.0 1.6 2.8 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.6 6.8 18.5 92.0 55.6 48.3 3.0 5.7 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 4.8 3.2 9.8 67.0 46.9 40.9 1.9 3.6 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.1 20.7 90.4 54.2 47.5 2.5 4.5 7.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.0 4.7 12.4 77.4 51.2 43.9 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 3.3 2.0 8.4 59.6 43.7 38.0 1.3 2.5 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 4.9 3.5 11.2 71.9 49.0 42.6 1.8 3.7 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.5 7.0 15.3 84.1 53.1 46.1 3.0 6.3 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 5.0 3.6 12.5 72.0 48.8 42.8 2.0 3.8 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.5 14.5 90.9 57.4 49.5 1.9 3.6 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.1 3.8 11.5 70.6 48.1 42.5 2.3 4.0 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 6.5 5.3 13.2 77.6 53.1 44.4 2.6 4.8 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 11.4 10.1 19.6 92.3 55.5 48.6 4.3 8.5 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 3.6 2.4 9.7 67.2 46.7 41.0 1.4 2.7 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------