***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-08.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 13.9 19.9 22.3 168.5 83.6 75.0 3.4 6.5 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 12.2 15.8 19.3 151.2 79.0 68.1 3.8 6.7 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 16.9 30.3 25.3 191.3 87.8 79.6 3.2 6.9 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 16.2 23.6 26.4 188.2 86.4 78.8 5.2 8.6 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 17.1 28.8 27.6 194.5 88.8 81.0 4.3 8.0 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 12.0 20.0 26.4 209.7 90.8 84.9 3.6 6.0 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 10.4 12.0 17.8 137.7 75.3 64.4 3.0 5.5 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 26.7 44.5 31.0 205.7 91.0 84.6 8.3 13.8 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 14.1 25.5 29.5 212.5 91.3 85.0 3.3 6.3 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 15.7 30.7 32.3 216.0 92.5 85.8 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 12.6 22.2 27.3 204.2 90.2 82.5 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 10.8 18.1 26.7 203.1 90.2 83.8 2.9 5.2 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 12.9 20.9 26.0 195.8 89.4 83.3 3.6 6.3 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 23.5 49.5 32.5 215.8 91.8 83.7 4.2 9.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 15.0 21.9 22.2 179.6 83.7 75.8 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 12.8 22.7 25.9 201.3 89.9 82.3 3.0 5.7 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.4 9.3 16.1 130.1 72.9 61.4 3.2 5.2 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 15.5 32.0 36.0 221.8 93.3 87.0 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 13.4 19.3 21.7 168.2 82.9 72.6 4.0 7.3 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 15.1 23.8 38.1 195.6 89.2 84.2 4.2 7.3 11.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 15.9 27.4 27.0 203.2 89.6 82.9 3.8 7.1 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 7.3 12.4 18.0 140.6 75.7 64.2 3.3 5.9 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 12.9 22.2 25.5 193.7 88.0 79.0 3.5 6.5 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 19.9 39.6 32.5 220.2 92.7 85.4 4.6 8.8 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 14.0 20.2 25.2 167.2 83.2 75.7 2.9 6.2 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 11.0 17.4 25.4 192.3 88.9 84.5 2.9 5.2 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 12.7 17.2 23.3 159.2 81.4 73.5 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 13.9 23.2 24.8 197.2 87.4 79.3 2.9 6.0 10.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 22.6 42.5 37.9 218.4 93.0 87.1 5.9 10.4 16.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 12.5 17.5 20.6 159.5 81.2 71.0 3.6 6.6 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------