***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-20.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 10.1 12.5 11.4 0.3 53.0 52.3 10.3 12.2 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 13.1 12.5 11.3 0.2 52.2 51.7 10.6 12.3 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 10.5 13.0 11.5 0.3 53.3 52.6 10.8 12.7 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 5.3 5.5 9.8 0.8 58.0 55.9 2.2 4.4 6.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.2 9.9 0.5 54.9 53.5 10.7 12.7 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.9 8.0 0.3 52.6 51.7 9.5 11.5 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 10.0 12.2 11.2 0.2 51.8 51.4 10.3 12.0 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 2.2 1.6 8.2 0.2 52.0 51.2 -0.6 1.4 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.9 10.3 0.3 53.3 52.4 10.5 12.5 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.8 9.1 0.2 52.4 51.6 10.4 12.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.0 9.5 0.3 53.3 52.4 10.5 12.6 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.0 9.1 0.2 51.9 51.2 9.6 11.8 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 10.3 12.8 8.6 0.1 50.9 50.4 10.7 12.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.4 10.3 0.3 53.1 52.4 11.1 13.1 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.0 13.5 10.3 1.0 60.7 58.0 10.0 12.2 14.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.5 9.2 0.3 52.8 52.0 11.1 13.1 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 9.4 11.6 11.0 0.1 51.7 51.3 9.8 11.5 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 13.2 12.5 8.4 0.2 51.8 51.2 10.2 12.2 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 13.2 12.7 11.5 0.2 52.7 52.1 10.6 12.4 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.1 7.6 5.8 0.0 50.5 49.8 5.5 7.6 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.0 11.0 0.3 53.6 52.7 10.7 12.6 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 10.5 12.8 11.2 0.2 52.5 51.9 10.8 12.6 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 13.7 13.2 11.5 0.3 53.2 52.5 11.1 12.9 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.1 10.2 0.3 52.8 52.2 10.8 12.7 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.9 12.7 9.9 0.5 55.1 53.7 10.3 12.1 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 13.2 12.5 8.4 0.1 51.6 51.0 10.2 12.3 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 10.1 12.6 10.5 0.3 53.1 52.2 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.6 10.1 0.8 58.2 56.1 10.2 12.5 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 8.3 7.5 7.4 0.2 51.6 51.0 5.2 7.3 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 13.0 12.4 11.4 0.2 52.5 51.9 10.4 12.2 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------