***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.02.2016.-06.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 12.3 12.5 11.3 2.3 70.5 69.2 7.1 9.5 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 11.4 11.7 11.1 2.0 69.3 67.9 7.0 9.2 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 12.7 12.8 11.6 2.2 69.6 68.2 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 6.0 6.3 9.1 2.5 71.1 70.1 0.7 3.1 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 13.3 13.4 10.2 2.5 71.1 69.9 7.9 10.3 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 12.3 12.6 8.5 2.3 69.8 68.7 7.4 9.8 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 11.1 11.4 11.0 2.0 69.9 68.5 6.7 8.8 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 2.4 2.6 8.4 2.1 68.9 67.9 -1.5 0.4 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 13.4 13.7 11.3 2.6 72.2 70.8 8.1 10.5 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 13.2 13.3 9.7 2.4 70.2 69.0 8.2 10.6 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 13.5 13.7 10.2 2.5 70.8 69.7 8.2 10.7 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 12.4 12.6 9.3 2.2 69.4 68.4 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 13.3 13.4 9.6 2.1 68.3 67.3 8.6 10.9 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 13.0 13.2 10.8 2.1 68.1 66.7 8.1 10.6 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 12.6 12.9 11.3 2.8 72.9 72.0 6.7 9.3 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 13.8 14.1 9.9 2.4 70.6 69.5 8.8 11.2 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 45 55 100 10.7 11.0 10.6 1.9 69.1 67.6 6.4 8.6 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 12.8 12.9 8.8 2.2 68.8 67.5 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 11.7 12.0 11.3 2.1 69.6 68.2 6.9 9.2 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 6.3 7.7 6.0 1.6 65.5 64.5 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 12.9 13.1 11.6 2.4 70.4 69.1 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 11.5 11.9 10.9 2.0 69.5 67.9 6.9 9.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 12.5 12.8 11.5 2.2 69.8 68.3 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 13.2 13.4 10.7 2.2 69.0 67.6 8.3 10.7 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 12.0 12.2 10.2 2.3 70.3 69.1 7.1 9.4 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 12.6 12.7 8.2 1.9 68.2 67.2 8.3 10.5 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 12.3 12.5 10.7 2.3 71.0 69.6 7.4 9.7 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 13.4 13.7 10.3 2.7 71.8 70.8 7.3 10.0 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 8.1 8.3 7.7 1.9 67.7 66.4 3.9 6.0 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 11.5 11.7 11.3 2.1 69.7 68.3 7.0 9.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------