***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2012.-11.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 9.5 9.5 -0.7 42.0 44.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.8 9.3 9.6 -0.5 45.0 46.8 7.7 9.9 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.2 9.2 9.7 -0.8 42.2 44.5 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -0.7 0.0 6.9 -1.7 33.7 36.8 -0.1 2.2 4.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 7.4 8.3 7.4 -1.6 35.4 38.4 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 5.8 6.0 4.5 -2.6 27.4 31.2 6.8 9.0 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.5 8.9 9.4 -0.5 44.4 46.3 7.4 9.6 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 0.9 -1.4 6.1 -1.2 38.3 41.3 -2.1 0.0 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.3 9.0 8.5 -1.0 40.8 43.1 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.3 9.0 7.1 -1.1 39.8 42.4 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 7.5 8.4 7.3 -1.4 36.6 39.6 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 6.9 7.8 6.8 -1.5 35.6 38.9 7.5 9.8 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 7.5 7.9 5.6 -2.2 29.7 33.5 8.3 10.5 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.8 9.6 8.5 -0.9 41.7 44.4 8.3 10.7 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 6.8 8.1 7.6 -1.1 39.1 41.6 7.2 9.7 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 7.6 8.1 6.3 -2.1 30.8 34.4 8.4 10.7 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.3 9.2 9.4 -0.2 47.5 48.7 7.3 9.5 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.0 8.4 6.2 -1.2 38.8 41.7 7.6 10.0 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.8 9.1 9.8 -0.5 44.6 46.6 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.2 3.9 3.6 -1.2 37.9 40.9 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.3 9.2 9.2 -0.9 41.2 43.6 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 11.0 9.8 9.7 -0.2 48.1 49.4 7.8 10.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.4 9.6 9.8 -0.6 43.7 45.9 8.1 10.5 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.7 9.3 8.2 -1.0 40.3 43.1 8.2 10.6 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.7 8.5 7.9 -0.9 40.7 43.0 7.5 9.7 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 7.4 7.8 5.7 -1.9 31.6 35.3 8.0 10.1 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.9 8.9 8.6 -0.7 42.2 44.3 7.7 10.0 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 6.6 7.4 7.1 -1.8 33.3 36.6 7.3 9.9 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.1 3.6 5.0 -1.2 38.0 41.0 3.0 5.2 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.7 9.0 9.6 -0.6 43.7 45.8 7.5 9.8 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------