***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2019.-17.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 12.0 12.5 11.7 1.1 61.9 59.0 9.2 11.1 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.3 13.0 11.7 1.3 63.4 60.1 9.8 11.6 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.6 13.0 12.0 1.1 61.0 58.5 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 4.3 4.8 9.2 1.1 60.8 59.0 1.3 3.4 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 12.6 12.7 10.0 0.9 58.5 57.1 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 11.0 11.2 8.2 1.0 59.4 57.1 8.5 10.3 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 13.2 12.7 11.7 1.3 64.4 60.5 9.4 11.2 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -1.0 1.8 8.5 0.7 57.6 56.1 -0.6 1.0 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 9.4 12.6 10.5 0.8 58.0 56.6 9.8 11.7 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 9.2 12.5 9.3 0.8 57.5 56.0 9.7 11.7 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 9.2 12.5 9.9 0.9 58.6 57.0 9.6 11.6 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 8.7 11.8 9.4 0.8 58.3 56.8 9.1 10.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.8 8.8 0.9 59.5 57.3 10.0 11.8 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.0 13.0 10.6 0.8 57.7 56.1 10.2 12.1 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.7 12.4 10.0 1.2 62.8 60.6 8.7 10.8 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 12.9 13.1 9.4 1.0 59.8 57.7 10.3 12.1 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 12.7 12.3 11.6 1.3 63.9 60.3 9.0 10.8 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 9.1 12.3 9.0 0.7 57.0 55.5 9.6 11.5 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.9 11.9 1.2 62.4 59.5 9.6 11.5 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 7.7 7.6 6.2 0.6 56.3 54.5 5.1 6.9 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 12.6 12.8 11.3 0.9 58.9 57.2 10.0 11.8 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 12.4 13.0 11.7 1.1 62.0 59.4 9.7 11.7 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 12.8 13.2 12.1 1.1 61.1 58.5 10.1 12.0 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 9.8 12.9 10.5 0.8 57.8 56.3 10.1 12.0 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.9 12.3 10.0 1.0 61.0 58.6 9.2 11.1 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.7 8.7 1.1 62.0 59.3 9.8 11.5 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 12.2 12.6 11.0 1.1 61.8 58.8 9.5 11.4 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.6 9.5 1.1 61.1 59.2 8.9 11.2 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 4.4 7.4 8.0 0.6 56.4 54.8 4.8 6.7 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.7 11.8 1.2 63.2 59.9 9.5 11.3 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------