***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2020.-15.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 11.4 11.1 10.5 0.2 52.5 52.4 8.8 10.8 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.6 10.5 0.4 54.0 53.8 9.2 11.2 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 12.0 11.5 10.8 0.1 51.0 51.3 9.4 11.4 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 3.9 3.4 8.1 0.3 52.4 52.4 1.0 3.1 5.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.1 8.6 -0.3 47.2 48.2 9.4 11.4 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 7.8 8.9 6.1 -1.0 40.1 42.4 8.1 9.9 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 11.4 11.3 10.5 0.4 54.1 53.9 8.9 10.8 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -1.2 -0.1 6.8 -1.0 40.4 42.4 -0.9 0.8 2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.2 10.9 9.1 -0.4 46.4 47.5 9.3 11.3 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 9.0 10.5 7.7 -0.8 42.7 44.3 9.3 11.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 12.1 10.5 8.2 -0.7 43.3 45.0 9.2 11.2 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 8.4 9.6 7.7 -1.0 40.3 42.6 8.8 10.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 9.4 10.4 6.8 -1.1 38.7 41.4 9.7 11.5 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.4 11.4 9.2 -0.3 47.2 48.1 9.6 11.7 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.2 9.2 0.6 55.5 54.8 8.3 10.5 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 9.6 10.9 7.6 -0.8 42.2 44.2 9.9 11.7 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 11.1 11.0 10.5 0.4 54.9 54.5 8.6 10.5 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.0 10.4 7.4 -0.7 43.3 44.8 9.1 11.1 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.4 10.7 0.3 53.1 52.9 9.0 11.1 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.4 5.6 4.6 -0.9 40.4 42.0 4.8 6.6 8.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 12.1 11.3 10.0 -0.1 48.9 49.5 9.5 11.5 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 12.0 11.8 10.5 0.4 54.3 53.9 9.2 11.3 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 12.3 11.7 10.8 0.1 51.1 51.3 9.6 11.6 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.4 11.2 9.1 -0.4 46.5 47.6 9.7 11.6 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 11.4 11.0 8.9 0.2 52.3 52.2 8.7 10.7 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 9.2 10.2 6.8 -0.9 39.9 42.8 9.5 11.2 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 11.6 11.3 9.8 0.2 52.3 52.3 9.1 11.0 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 11.6 10.9 8.3 0.2 51.4 51.5 8.4 10.8 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 7.2 5.5 6.4 -0.8 42.2 43.7 4.4 6.3 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 11.5 11.3 10.5 0.3 53.4 53.3 9.0 10.9 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------