***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2014.-23.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 14.8 34.8 77.6 38.1 36.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 13.2 19.2 36.1 82.4 42.0 39.5 14.7 23.9 35.3 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 21.6 28.3 37.8 82.2 41.3 38.7 22.5 35.3 50.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 27.4 42.0 50.9 99.0 55.8 48.6 29.1 38.5 49.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 24.8 36.5 47.8 93.5 50.9 45.4 26.3 36.0 47.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 19.5 28.1 51.9 91.8 48.8 44.9 19.3 29.0 40.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 14.1 18.9 34.9 81.4 40.9 39.0 15.5 23.3 32.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 51.8 64.3 51.5 94.9 51.5 47.2 52.5 63.4 74.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 21.9 31.2 46.4 90.7 48.2 43.2 23.0 32.2 42.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 30.3 41.4 51.2 93.5 50.1 45.3 31.3 41.4 52.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 23.0 34.7 44.9 92.9 50.7 45.9 23.9 34.4 46.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 41.5 36.8 44.9 94.0 51.4 47.1 26.3 36.0 46.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 25.4 33.1 46.7 89.7 46.9 44.0 25.7 34.8 45.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 32.9 41.7 48.8 86.1 43.9 41.3 33.2 46.8 63.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 39.2 44.3 53.0 108.7 63.2 54.0 18.2 31.1 47.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 23.6 32.3 46.0 92.4 50.1 45.6 23.9 32.3 41.7 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 13.6 20.4 35.7 84.9 45.4 41.7 14.9 22.5 32.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 26.0 35.4 55.8 93.3 49.1 45.1 26.5 35.9 46.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 16.6 23.4 37.0 82.3 41.9 39.3 18.2 28.6 41.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 25.1 35.0 64.5 93.2 48.9 45.9 26.3 35.9 46.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 20.7 28.5 40.4 85.3 44.4 40.2 22.4 31.8 43.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 15.0 21.9 38.1 85.7 45.4 41.7 15.9 24.3 34.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 17.7 23.0 39.1 82.3 41.5 39.1 18.8 27.5 37.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 31.4 40.9 48.0 88.3 45.4 42.0 31.7 44.5 59.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 17.7 25.2 44.6 85.4 43.9 41.1 19.0 29.1 41.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 34.4 31.9 49.2 96.6 53.4 49.0 21.9 30.0 39.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 16.4 20.9 39.3 79.3 38.4 37.5 18.1 27.1 37.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 19.5 34.9 51.2 102.8 58.7 50.9 19.3 28.9 40.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 44.5 58.9 59.4 93.7 49.6 45.7 45.1 58.9 74.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 14.8 20.4 35.9 81.0 40.3 38.3 16.6 26.3 38.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------