***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.03.2014.-09.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9999.0 12.3 12.4 2.3 73.3 71.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 12.1 12.7 12.4 2.3 74.8 73.0 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 12.6 12.9 12.4 2.1 70.9 69.4 7.6 10.0 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 48 52 100 4.7 5.1 9.9 1.8 68.7 66.7 0.1 2.5 4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 12.5 12.8 10.5 2.0 69.0 67.2 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 11.8 12.3 9.1 2.2 71.1 68.8 7.0 9.4 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 12.0 12.7 12.4 2.5 76.6 74.6 6.9 9.1 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 2.1 2.5 9.3 2.1 70.1 68.2 -2.1 0.0 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 46 54 100 12.5 12.8 11.2 2.0 68.5 67.0 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 12.6 13.0 10.2 2.0 69.1 67.5 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 12.8 13.2 10.4 2.1 69.8 67.9 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 44 56 100 12.0 12.6 10.1 2.1 70.3 68.3 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 13.1 13.6 9.8 2.3 72.0 69.7 8.3 10.6 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 13.1 13.1 11.3 1.9 68.3 66.8 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 11.8 12.0 9.9 1.7 68.1 65.9 6.9 9.3 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 13.3 13.7 10.0 2.1 70.1 68.0 8.5 10.9 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 11.7 12.3 12.1 2.4 75.8 73.9 6.7 8.9 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 12.4 12.6 9.7 2.1 69.7 68.0 7.6 9.9 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 12.2 12.6 12.4 2.2 73.0 71.3 6.9 9.3 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 8.1 8.3 7.4 2.3 72.9 70.4 3.3 5.4 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 12.4 12.7 11.8 2.0 69.3 67.7 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 12.2 12.6 12.1 2.1 73.0 71.2 7.1 9.4 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 12.8 12.9 12.4 2.0 70.6 69.1 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 13.0 13.2 11.2 2.0 68.9 67.4 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 11.9 12.4 10.7 2.2 72.5 70.6 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 12.7 13.3 9.4 2.3 73.4 71.0 8.1 10.2 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 12.6 13.1 11.7 2.4 74.6 72.7 7.3 9.6 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 10.4 12.3 10.0 1.7 66.9 65.0 7.2 9.8 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 8.1 8.4 8.8 2.3 71.7 69.6 3.2 5.4 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 12.1 12.5 12.5 2.3 74.3 72.5 7.0 9.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------