***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2016.-28.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 10.1 12.6 17.3 155.6 79.0 68.6 3.0 5.4 8.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 8.7 11.3 16.2 154.6 78.9 67.9 2.6 4.6 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 12.3 15.6 17.1 148.4 77.5 66.9 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 8.7 10.0 14.5 99.3 62.4 55.0 3.4 6.7 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 11.0 11.8 17.5 128.2 72.0 64.8 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 12.7 13.8 15.7 127.8 72.1 65.2 3.9 7.1 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 9.1 11.4 16.0 153.0 78.6 67.9 2.2 4.5 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 12.0 16.6 17.3 121.1 69.9 62.4 6.3 10.1 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 9.8 9.8 16.0 121.7 70.0 61.3 2.5 4.9 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 10.8 11.2 17.5 122.8 70.4 62.7 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 10.0 9.8 15.1 116.6 68.7 62.0 3.0 5.5 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 13.1 12.8 14.8 116.5 68.5 61.5 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 13.1 13.9 16.0 123.8 70.8 63.6 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 14.0 21.1 23.3 170.8 83.0 70.8 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 8.9 10.5 12.8 96.6 62.7 53.4 2.5 6.1 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 10.7 10.6 15.0 116.3 68.5 61.4 3.1 5.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 10.7 13.6 15.8 153.8 78.5 68.1 2.4 4.9 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 6.6 12.5 21.4 142.3 76.2 66.0 2.7 5.2 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 9.0 11.9 16.9 155.6 79.2 67.8 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 12.3 15.8 26.6 147.9 77.6 66.6 3.7 6.8 11.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 11.2 12.5 16.4 132.4 73.2 63.6 3.0 5.9 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 10.2 13.4 17.3 162.3 80.4 69.8 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 7.7 10.8 18.3 157.3 79.7 67.5 2.2 4.2 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 11.4 15.2 20.0 148.7 77.8 66.6 3.2 6.2 10.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 13.2 15.5 19.7 143.7 76.3 67.7 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 12.5 14.0 17.0 134.5 73.9 64.9 3.1 6.3 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 10.5 13.1 19.3 154.9 79.0 69.7 3.0 5.4 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.5 8.6 13.0 96.2 61.8 54.1 2.8 5.6 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 17.5 24.4 24.6 157.4 79.8 68.2 5.0 9.5 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 9.8 13.1 16.5 153.8 78.8 67.7 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------