***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-20.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 3.1 3.6 3.9 1.9 75.0 69.6 0.4 1.7 2.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 2.6 3.0 3.6 1.7 73.3 68.2 0.1 1.3 2.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 5.1 5.5 3.6 1.8 74.9 69.7 2.4 3.7 4.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 -0.4 0.0 1.3 2.1 74.8 70.8 -3.9 -2.3 -0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 1.7 1.9 1.3 2.1 73.7 69.9 -0.4 0.5 1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 1.1 1.5 -0.6 2.6 76.7 72.6 -0.9 0.0 0.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 2.9 3.3 3.7 1.8 74.0 68.8 0.4 1.6 2.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 -3.4 -3.1 -0.5 2.1 73.3 69.2 -6.9 -5.3 -3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 3.1 3.3 1.9 2.0 73.3 69.3 0.7 1.8 2.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 2.7 2.9 0.3 2.0 73.2 68.8 0.7 1.6 2.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 2.4 2.6 0.9 2.1 73.5 70.1 0.4 1.3 2.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 1.4 1.7 0.6 2.2 74.0 70.5 -0.8 0.2 1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 2.2 2.5 0.3 2.4 75.8 71.7 0.2 1.1 1.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 3.4 3.6 1.7 1.8 72.6 67.3 1.3 2.3 3.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 3.1 3.4 2.0 2.1 75.5 71.6 0.7 1.8 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 3.0 3.3 0.6 2.3 74.9 71.3 1.0 1.9 2.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 2.8 3.1 3.4 1.6 71.5 66.9 0.7 1.8 2.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 0.7 0.8 -0.5 1.9 71.9 67.0 -1.2 -0.3 0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 2.9 3.3 3.5 1.7 73.4 68.2 0.3 1.5 2.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 -1.7 -1.6 -2.6 1.8 70.7 65.9 -3.9 -2.9 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 2.5 2.8 3.0 1.9 74.5 69.8 0.3 1.3 2.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 2.4 2.6 3.4 1.6 71.8 67.1 0.3 1.3 2.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 2.4 2.7 3.1 1.6 73.5 68.2 0.1 1.2 2.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 2.6 2.7 1.5 1.8 72.8 67.9 0.6 1.5 2.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 2.5 2.9 2.2 2.0 75.8 70.7 0.2 1.3 2.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 2.1 2.4 0.3 2.2 73.7 70.2 0.3 1.1 1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 3.1 3.7 3.2 2.0 75.6 70.1 0.1 1.5 2.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 1.4 1.7 1.5 2.2 74.6 70.9 -0.8 0.2 1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 0.4 0.5 -1.3 1.9 71.0 66.3 -2.7 -1.3 0.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 3.1 3.5 3.7 1.8 74.3 69.0 0.5 1.7 2.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------