***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2014.-23.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 5.7 8.6 73.2 49.8 44.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 5.3 5.0 8.9 85.7 55.8 49.9 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.9 5.8 8.8 70.5 48.3 43.4 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.2 6.0 9.5 62.6 44.3 39.4 4.2 7.0 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.8 6.2 9.6 65.8 45.7 40.4 3.8 7.1 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.9 4.6 8.4 66.9 46.8 40.7 2.8 5.2 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.1 4.8 8.6 86.8 55.7 49.5 2.0 3.9 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.2 10.4 9.4 66.9 45.7 40.6 7.0 11.8 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.3 5.1 9.8 67.4 45.4 40.9 3.1 6.0 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.8 5.9 10.2 69.1 46.5 41.6 3.5 6.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.4 5.7 9.1 67.5 47.2 41.0 3.4 6.2 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.6 5.9 8.5 67.4 46.7 40.8 3.6 6.5 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.0 6.6 8.7 68.1 46.9 40.8 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 9.2 8.0 11.6 80.1 52.7 47.3 4.2 7.4 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.8 3.8 7.8 55.8 43.3 38.8 2.4 4.9 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.3 5.3 8.9 67.8 47.4 41.4 3.2 5.8 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.2 8.7 92.1 58.6 52.5 2.1 4.5 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.9 6.5 11.1 71.2 47.1 42.7 3.6 7.2 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.3 9.1 82.7 54.1 48.6 2.6 4.7 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.3 8.3 11.9 70.1 46.7 41.7 4.8 9.3 15.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.9 4.9 9.1 67.0 46.8 41.7 2.7 5.6 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.5 9.6 93.9 59.5 53.5 2.5 4.7 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.8 4.9 9.6 77.5 51.4 46.1 2.8 4.7 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.4 7.9 10.5 71.9 48.2 43.6 4.9 8.3 12.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.7 4.9 9.9 69.5 47.0 41.8 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.9 5.6 8.0 63.4 45.2 39.5 3.9 6.4 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.1 5.7 9.8 76.1 50.0 44.6 3.3 5.7 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.1 4.7 8.7 61.5 45.3 40.1 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.8 11.4 11.6 72.4 47.6 43.2 6.4 12.3 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.8 4.9 8.8 81.3 53.6 47.9 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------