***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-08.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 -2.2 -1.2 -0.2 -0.9 37.1 41.1 -1.7 0.2 2.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 -2.3 -1.3 -0.4 -0.9 37.6 41.6 -1.8 -0.1 1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 0.1 0.8 -0.5 -0.9 37.0 41.5 0.4 2.1 3.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -3.2 -5.0 -2.9 -0.6 41.3 44.7 -6.0 -4.0 -2.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 -2.3 -1.5 -2.7 -0.8 38.8 42.9 -2.1 -0.5 1.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 -0.7 -2.3 -4.6 -0.9 38.1 44.0 -2.7 -1.3 0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 -2.0 -1.0 -0.4 -0.9 37.4 41.2 -1.5 0.2 1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -5.7 -7.7 -4.2 -0.9 40.1 43.0 -8.5 -6.6 -4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 1.2 -0.5 -2.0 -0.9 37.6 42.0 -0.9 0.6 2.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 -1.3 -0.5 -3.6 -1.0 38.2 41.8 -1.0 0.5 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 -1.3 -0.3 -2.7 -0.6 42.2 45.3 -1.1 0.4 1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 -0.3 -1.7 -3.1 -0.7 41.4 44.5 -2.4 -0.9 0.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 -1.6 -1.0 -3.7 -0.9 37.3 42.0 -1.4 0.0 1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 -1.1 -0.6 -2.1 -1.1 34.5 39.5 -0.7 0.8 2.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 0.9 0.1 -2.1 -0.3 46.2 48.6 -1.1 0.4 1.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 1.5 0.2 -3.2 -0.6 42.0 45.2 -0.6 0.8 2.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 -2.0 -1.0 -0.4 -0.9 38.1 41.6 -1.5 0.2 1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 -3.3 -2.9 -4.6 -1.4 35.3 39.6 -3.1 -1.7 -0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 -2.0 -1.2 -0.4 -0.9 37.3 41.7 -1.7 0.1 1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 -7.3 -6.4 -6.5 -1.6 34.2 38.0 -6.6 -4.6 -2.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 -1.8 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 37.1 41.5 -1.5 0.1 1.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 -2.0 -1.3 -0.5 -0.9 37.0 41.2 -1.7 -0.1 1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 -2.2 -1.4 -0.7 -0.9 36.8 41.4 -1.8 -0.2 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 -1.6 -1.1 -2.4 -1.1 36.0 40.9 -1.4 0.1 1.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 0.7 -0.9 -1.9 -0.8 39.2 43.5 -1.5 0.0 1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 -1.8 -1.4 -3.6 -1.1 35.4 40.5 -1.6 -0.1 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 -2.2 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9 37.5 41.7 -1.7 0.2 1.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 -0.4 -1.5 -2.5 -0.4 44.3 46.8 -2.4 -1.0 0.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -5.0 -4.3 -5.2 -1.4 35.0 39.3 -4.6 -2.7 -0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 -1.9 -0.9 -0.3 -0.9 37.1 41.3 -1.4 0.4 2.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------