***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2021.-28.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 2.3 2.6 4.3 37.9 29.1 23.0 3.0 5.4 8.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 1.8 2.1 3.5 35.6 28.1 23.7 2.6 4.6 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 2.2 2.2 4.6 39.5 29.1 23.7 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 3.4 5.5 7.9 61.6 44.8 34.3 3.4 6.7 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 2.7 4.3 7.7 59.0 42.3 32.4 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.9 6.6 8.6 68.9 48.0 37.8 3.9 7.1 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 1.6 1.8 3.4 35.4 27.9 22.9 2.2 4.5 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 5.8 8.9 8.9 62.5 44.8 34.6 6.3 10.1 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 2.2 3.5 7.7 57.4 40.7 31.9 2.5 4.9 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 3.0 4.9 8.6 60.8 43.8 34.6 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 2.7 4.8 8.3 63.0 45.2 34.6 3.0 5.5 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 3.2 5.5 8.1 62.8 44.6 33.1 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.9 6.8 9.1 68.3 47.3 36.7 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 2.9 3.4 6.5 44.8 33.1 28.0 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 2.3 5.2 7.0 59.8 46.7 33.1 2.5 6.1 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.9 5.2 8.6 67.1 46.7 35.7 3.1 5.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 79 21 0 100 1.6 1.7 3.2 32.7 26.3 22.0 2.4 4.9 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 2.6 3.8 8.6 58.0 41.1 33.0 2.7 5.2 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 2.0 2.1 3.9 37.7 29.2 24.9 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 3.4 5.4 11.0 61.5 43.0 33.7 3.7 6.8 11.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 2.7 3.5 6.5 50.8 36.3 28.6 3.0 5.9 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 2.0 2.0 3.4 33.6 27.2 22.8 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 1.9 2.0 4.7 41.8 30.8 26.7 2.2 4.2 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 2.8 3.4 6.6 47.6 34.3 28.1 3.2 6.2 10.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 2.7 3.1 5.9 43.1 32.5 26.3 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.2 5.1 8.1 63.4 44.4 35.0 3.1 6.3 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 2.4 2.6 4.8 39.0 29.9 24.4 3.0 5.4 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.6 5.2 7.8 64.4 47.7 34.5 2.8 5.6 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 4.5 6.9 9.1 58.3 41.0 33.1 5.0 9.5 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 1.7 1.7 3.7 36.5 28.1 23.1 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------