***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-21.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 2.8 1.3 1.9 -4.9 11.6 15.2 4.6 6.5 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 84 16 0 100 1.6 0.3 2.1 -4.6 13.3 17.1 3.5 5.5 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 85 15 0 100 2.1 0.6 2.0 -5.1 12.5 16.5 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 -4.1 -5.5 -1.1 -4.9 12.6 16.7 -2.4 -0.5 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 87 13 0 100 2.2 0.1 -0.1 -5.6 9.5 14.2 4.2 6.3 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 92 8 0 100 1.4 -1.9 -3.0 -7.3 4.8 9.3 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 85 15 0 100 1.2 -0.4 1.8 -4.8 12.0 15.7 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 85 15 0 100 -5.6 -8.2 -2.1 -6.7 6.3 12.7 -4.1 -2.4 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 2.4 0.2 1.1 -5.5 10.1 15.0 4.3 6.4 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 84 16 0 100 2.4 -0.2 -1.0 -6.3 8.2 13.8 4.3 6.3 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 85 15 0 100 2.4 -0.2 0.1 -6.0 8.4 13.4 4.4 6.6 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 87 13 0 100 1.9 -1.3 -1.2 -6.5 6.0 11.9 3.9 6.0 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 89 11 0 100 2.2 -1.2 -1.0 -6.9 5.5 10.5 4.4 6.5 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 84 16 0 100 2.4 0.7 1.7 -5.2 12.4 18.1 4.4 6.6 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 87 13 0 100 1.7 0.8 1.6 -4.3 14.3 17.6 3.6 5.6 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 87 13 0 100 2.7 -0.3 -0.7 -6.3 7.3 12.0 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 85 15 0 100 1.4 0.0 1.8 -4.6 12.2 16.4 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 85 15 0 100 1.9 -0.4 -1.3 -6.1 8.9 15.4 3.8 5.8 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 84 16 0 100 1.4 0.2 2.3 -4.6 14.3 18.2 3.4 5.6 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 84 16 0 100 -1.2 -4.1 -3.5 -6.6 6.7 14.1 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 86 14 0 100 2.3 0.2 1.7 -5.5 9.8 14.3 4.3 6.4 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 83 17 0 100 1.6 0.3 2.5 -4.3 13.7 18.2 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 1.5 0.5 2.4 -4.6 14.7 18.9 3.6 5.8 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 86 14 0 100 2.2 0.3 1.1 -5.6 10.8 16.4 4.3 6.4 8.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 87 13 0 100 1.6 -0.2 0.7 -5.1 10.2 14.1 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 97 3 0 100 1.7 -2.8 -3.1 -7.7 2.6 7.0 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 88 12 0 100 1.7 -0.3 1.3 -5.1 9.9 13.7 3.8 5.8 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 86 14 0 100 2.1 0.5 -0.2 -5.0 11.9 15.9 4.1 6.2 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 -2.0 -4.4 -1.9 -6.1 8.8 15.9 0.0 2.2 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 1.4 0.0 2.0 -4.7 12.8 16.6 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------