***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2021.-28.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 -3.2 -3.4 -3.2 -2.7 22.7 29.6 -2.3 -0.6 1.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 -4.4 -4.5 -2.9 -2.4 25.5 31.7 -3.6 -1.7 0.0 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 -1.5 -1.6 -2.7 -2.3 26.8 33.1 -0.9 0.7 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -7.3 -7.3 -5.4 -2.3 28.1 35.0 -6.7 -4.8 -3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 -4.2 -4.3 -4.9 -2.5 25.9 33.1 -3.5 -1.9 -0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 -5.3 -6.2 -8.1 -3.5 16.8 26.8 -4.3 -2.6 -1.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 -4.1 -4.2 -3.1 -2.5 24.6 30.6 -3.2 -1.4 0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 -10.7 -11.4 -7.6 -3.2 20.2 30.2 -9.6 -7.7 -5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 -3.3 -3.1 -4.4 -2.0 29.0 36.1 -2.7 -1.0 0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 -3.3 -3.5 -6.6 -2.7 24.3 33.0 -2.6 -1.1 0.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 -3.7 -3.8 -5.4 -2.5 25.2 33.5 -3.0 -1.4 0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 -4.8 -5.4 -6.7 -3.2 19.9 29.6 -4.0 -2.4 -0.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 -4.8 -5.7 -7.3 -3.7 16.2 25.8 -3.5 -1.7 0.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 -2.8 -2.6 -4.5 -2.2 28.8 35.8 -2.2 -0.7 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 -3.1 -2.9 -3.5 -1.7 31.4 37.8 -2.8 -1.2 0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 -3.0 -3.4 -6.3 -3.0 21.4 30.1 -2.2 -0.6 0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 -4.3 -4.4 -3.0 -2.4 25.5 31.8 -3.5 -1.6 0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 -5.6 -5.8 -7.0 -2.7 24.7 33.7 -4.9 -3.4 -2.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 -4.0 -4.1 -2.8 -2.3 26.5 32.7 -3.3 -1.5 0.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 -11.1 -12.2 -9.1 -3.6 17.3 27.5 -9.4 -6.9 -4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 -3.5 -3.5 -3.4 -2.3 26.7 33.6 -2.8 -1.2 0.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 -4.3 -4.3 -2.7 -2.2 27.2 33.2 -3.7 -1.9 -0.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 -4.0 -3.9 -2.9 -2.1 27.6 34.0 -3.4 -1.8 -0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 -3.4 -3.3 -4.5 -2.1 29.1 36.4 -2.9 -1.5 -0.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 -3.8 -4.1 -4.2 -2.7 24.1 30.8 -3.1 -1.5 0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 78 22 0 100 -4.5 -5.8 -8.0 -4.1 13.6 24.2 -3.2 -1.6 0.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 -3.9 -4.3 -3.7 -2.8 22.5 29.2 -3.0 -1.1 0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 -4.7 -4.9 -5.0 -2.3 27.4 34.7 -4.3 -2.8 -1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 -6.7 -7.0 -7.8 -2.9 23.0 32.3 -5.8 -4.0 -2.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 -3.8 -4.0 -2.9 -2.4 25.1 31.3 -3.0 -1.2 0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------