***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-21.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 89 11 0 100 -4.3 -6.2 -6.6 -5.2 6.9 10.6 -2.9 -1.5 -0.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 -6.8 -8.6 -6.6 -4.9 10.0 13.8 -4.9 -3.0 -1.1 30 Becej 27400G00 85 15 0 100 -3.7 -5.2 -6.2 -4.8 10.3 14.0 -2.2 -0.6 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 89 11 0 100 -10.1 -12.2 -8.6 -5.0 7.9 12.1 -8.4 -6.7 -5.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 87 13 0 100 -6.1 -8.1 -7.9 -5.2 8.0 12.5 -4.6 -3.0 -1.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 93 7 0 100 -6.9 -10.8 -12.0 -7.2 2.2 7.7 -5.1 -3.6 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 87 13 0 100 -6.1 -7.9 -6.8 -4.9 9.8 13.4 -4.4 -2.6 -0.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 88 12 0 100 -12.9 -16.5 -10.9 -6.2 4.5 11.4 -11.0 -9.1 -7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 85 15 0 100 -5.2 -6.5 -7.0 -4.3 11.4 15.8 -3.7 -2.2 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 86 14 0 100 -5.2 -7.3 -9.7 -5.5 7.4 13.3 -3.7 -2.2 -0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 87 13 0 100 -5.4 -7.2 -7.8 -4.8 8.0 13.4 -3.9 -2.4 -0.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 89 11 0 100 -7.1 -10.1 -9.6 -5.9 4.7 10.9 -5.3 -3.6 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 -6.5 -10.8 -10.5 -6.9 2.3 7.9 -4.6 -2.8 -1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 83 17 0 100 -4.7 -5.8 -7.2 -4.1 12.9 18.9 -3.4 -1.9 -0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 90 10 0 100 -5.2 -6.5 -6.0 -3.8 10.7 13.8 -3.6 -2.0 -0.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 89 11 0 100 -4.8 -7.4 -9.2 -5.7 5.0 10.5 -3.3 -1.8 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 87 13 0 100 -6.0 -7.9 -6.9 -5.0 8.8 13.0 -4.4 -2.7 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 85 15 0 100 -7.1 -8.6 -9.7 -5.1 9.9 16.5 -5.7 -4.2 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 85 15 0 100 -6.5 -7.9 -6.4 -4.5 11.6 15.3 -4.7 -2.9 -1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 90 10 0 100 -11.4 -15.3 -12.6 -6.9 3.9 11.3 -9.3 -7.3 -5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 86 14 0 100 -5.6 -7.3 -6.4 -4.7 9.8 13.6 -4.0 -2.4 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 85 15 0 100 -6.5 -8.0 -6.1 -4.4 11.0 15.1 -4.8 -3.0 -1.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 81 19 0 100 -5.8 -6.9 -6.1 -4.1 13.4 17.2 -4.5 -2.8 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 85 15 0 100 -5.5 -6.7 -7.2 -4.3 11.3 17.1 -4.0 -2.5 -1.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 91 9 0 100 -6.2 -8.3 -7.2 -5.2 7.2 10.9 -4.4 -2.7 -1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 95 5 0 100 -6.1 -11.5 -12.5 -8.6 0.8 5.1 -4.3 -2.7 -1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 91 9 0 100 -6.9 -9.9 -7.0 -5.4 6.0 9.7 -4.7 -2.6 -0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 90 10 0 100 -6.6 -8.4 -8.0 -4.8 8.0 12.1 -5.0 -3.5 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 86 14 0 100 -9.0 -11.0 -10.7 -5.3 8.7 16.6 -7.3 -5.5 -3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 -6.1 -8.0 -6.5 -4.9 9.1 12.8 -4.3 -2.5 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------