***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2017.-12.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 18.2 21.0 36.2 75.7 34.1 35.7 20.5 29.8 41.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 17.0 20.3 31.7 76.4 35.5 35.8 19.1 27.0 36.4 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 23.2 25.4 35.0 74.3 32.8 34.1 25.4 36.7 49.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 25.2 24.0 34.3 64.8 23.2 27.5 29.8 40.1 52.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 26.7 25.9 37.4 69.9 26.8 30.5 29.6 39.7 50.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 20.8 19.4 37.3 70.2 26.5 29.9 22.6 31.6 42.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 16.0 19.2 31.6 77.7 37.1 37.0 17.5 25.0 33.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 48.5 47.7 40.1 70.0 26.1 29.7 52.4 63.7 75.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 21.8 21.2 39.0 71.7 28.2 31.7 23.6 32.4 42.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 28.3 28.6 42.4 72.9 28.3 31.5 30.9 40.3 50.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 20.5 19.3 36.2 68.9 25.3 29.5 23.2 32.7 43.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 24.4 22.6 35.1 67.8 24.9 28.7 26.9 36.6 47.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 28.2 26.9 39.5 70.5 26.1 30.0 30.5 39.5 49.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 33.7 35.9 45.5 77.7 33.7 35.9 35.4 48.2 63.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 15.9 14.2 28.5 60.1 24.8 27.9 19.3 31.7 47.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 24.0 22.8 36.5 69.5 25.7 29.9 26.3 34.3 43.0 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 16.5 20.1 30.8 77.4 37.6 36.1 18.2 25.6 34.0 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 24.6 25.2 46.2 75.5 30.4 33.2 26.8 37.0 49.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 20.2 23.4 33.0 76.6 35.0 35.6 22.5 30.3 39.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 25.5 24.9 52.5 72.5 27.8 30.7 27.9 39.5 53.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 20.9 20.7 36.9 71.6 28.9 32.0 22.9 33.4 45.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 17.0 21.6 33.5 78.6 37.7 36.6 19.5 27.0 35.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 19.0 21.0 35.4 76.3 34.4 35.4 20.4 27.8 36.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 29.8 30.6 41.8 75.0 31.3 33.8 31.7 42.7 55.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 20.6 22.8 40.3 73.8 31.0 33.7 23.9 34.6 47.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 24.9 24.2 38.0 71.7 28.7 31.6 26.1 33.2 40.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 17.7 21.0 39.0 77.2 35.1 36.7 19.9 29.2 40.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 18.8 17.0 31.8 64.1 24.5 28.2 21.9 33.0 46.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 42.4 42.4 48.6 74.7 29.7 32.7 45.1 60.2 77.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 19.3 22.2 32.5 75.9 34.9 35.9 21.3 29.6 39.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------