***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-19.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 45 55 100 9999.0 8.7 12.8 124.2 71.0 63.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 5.6 8.3 9.6 110.4 66.9 60.2 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 8.5 14.0 12.7 123.8 70.8 63.8 3.2 6.7 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 46 54 100 15.8 18.5 16.0 134.4 73.9 65.8 6.5 10.3 15.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 16.6 20.0 16.8 140.2 75.4 68.9 5.9 10.1 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 11.7 13.7 16.1 139.2 75.2 67.7 4.3 7.2 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 5.2 7.8 9.8 113.6 67.8 62.0 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 48 52 100 21.7 23.8 16.4 128.5 72.2 67.1 12.4 16.7 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 9.1 14.8 15.3 127.0 71.7 65.3 4.3 7.8 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 11.0 17.4 16.4 125.9 71.4 66.2 5.4 9.6 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 47 53 100 12.6 15.7 15.7 137.4 74.7 68.4 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 14.6 16.8 15.2 134.7 74.0 68.1 5.1 8.8 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 14.8 18.1 16.6 142.6 76.0 70.0 5.5 9.1 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 10.5 15.5 14.2 114.4 67.7 61.7 4.9 9.1 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 8.9 15.6 14.4 132.9 73.6 64.0 3.6 7.2 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 11.8 14.6 16.2 143.0 76.2 69.3 3.6 6.5 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 5.2 7.1 8.4 103.2 64.7 58.8 2.0 4.2 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 10.7 16.7 17.3 122.8 70.4 65.9 5.1 9.3 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 6.9 9.9 10.2 111.9 67.3 60.0 2.8 5.6 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 11.2 15.7 18.3 117.0 68.6 63.9 5.7 9.7 14.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 46 54 100 12.8 14.9 14.8 129.9 72.6 65.6 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 6.5 8.1 8.7 101.0 63.5 56.8 2.8 5.3 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 6.5 9.5 11.5 115.0 67.9 60.5 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 9.6 15.1 15.3 121.1 69.9 64.2 4.3 8.1 13.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 14.8 17.8 17.3 144.2 76.4 70.1 3.7 7.4 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 46 54 100 10.8 12.1 15.4 127.1 71.9 66.2 3.9 6.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 11.5 12.8 14.7 131.7 73.1 66.6 2.9 5.8 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 9.0 17.5 15.3 136.8 74.5 65.4 3.3 7.2 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 17.7 24.5 17.3 115.7 67.9 63.7 9.9 15.9 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 6.6 10.0 10.6 115.3 68.3 61.6 2.6 5.2 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------