***************** ECMWF monthly forecast *********************
**************************************************************
PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama
PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije
eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala
anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije
pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala
apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala
33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana  66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010)
p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce)
**************************************************************
fct start 09.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka
valid: 13.02.2012.-11.03.2012.
**************************************************************
ghid      p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66      pad1   pad2   eavg  anacp% pctacp avpacp  33%    50%    66% br.god
18000G04     0    81    19   100 9999.0   37.0   48.3  111.8   65.3   59.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0   25   Banatski Karlovac             
17000G06     0    77    23   100   31.4   34.6   45.7  108.9   63.3   57.4   19.1   27.0   36.4   30   Becej                         
27400G00     0    80    20   100   42.1   50.6   49.4  113.7   66.7   60.5   25.4   36.7   49.9   30   Beograd                       
28900G14     0    82    18   100   44.5   50.5   54.3  109.9   64.0   58.4   29.8   40.1   52.2   29   Crni Vrh                      
38400G13     0    82    18   100   43.8   49.8   55.7  110.3   64.4   58.6   29.6   39.7   50.8   30   Cuprija                       
39700G22     0    81    19   100   35.6   36.2   54.0  102.0   57.6   53.1   22.6   31.6   42.0   30   Dimitrovgrad                  
17400G03     0    78    22   100   28.9   31.4   45.1  107.2   62.1   56.6   17.5   25.0   33.8   30   Kikinda                       
37800G18     0    83    17   100   67.6   71.4   57.7  105.7   60.8   55.4   52.4   63.7   75.5   30   Kopaonik                      
27800G12     0    81    19   100   36.3   40.0   54.3  107.5   62.3   56.8   23.6   32.4   42.6   30   Kragujevac                    
37600G18     0    82    18   100   44.0   47.1   57.6  106.0   61.0   55.6   30.9   40.3   50.5   30   Kraljevo                      
38300G19     0    83    17   100   36.5   41.0   52.2  107.7   62.4   56.7   23.2   32.7   43.7   30   Krusevac                      
38200G21     0    82    18   100   40.6   44.1   51.1  106.0   61.0   55.9   26.9   36.6   47.7   30   Kursumlija                    
38900G23     0    80    20   100   43.4   45.6   54.0  105.1   60.2   55.2   30.5   39.5   49.4   30   Leskovac                      
26200G08     0    78    22   100   54.8   60.0   57.8  108.5   63.2   56.4   35.4   48.2   63.0   30   Loznica                       
29500G14     0    82    18   100   37.7   46.0   49.6  110.9   64.6   58.8   19.3   31.7   47.6   30   Negotin                       
38800G20     0    82    18   100   37.5   40.1   52.6  106.3   61.3   55.8   26.3   34.3   43.0   30   Nis                           
06700G01     0    79    21   100   29.2   30.2   42.4  103.3   59.4   54.1   18.2   25.6   34.0   30   Palic                         
37000G16     0    83    17   100   41.0   45.6   64.1  107.2   62.2   56.5   26.8   37.0   49.0   30   Pozega                        
16800G06     0    79    21   100   34.0   38.2   47.0  110.5   64.5   58.4   22.5   30.3   39.1   30   Rimski Sancevi                
36900G16     0    83    17   100   44.1   49.3   76.4  107.4   62.2   56.5   27.9   39.5   53.0   29   Sjenica                       
27900G10     0    82    18   100   38.0   45.0   51.9  111.2   64.9   59.2   22.9   33.4   45.9   30   Smederevska Palanka           
16000G05     0    82    18   100   30.1   31.3   44.0  102.5   58.7   53.9   19.5   27.0   35.5   30   Sombor                        
26600G07     0    80    20   100   31.1   35.6   49.8  111.6   65.3   58.9   20.4   27.8   36.1   30   Sremska Mitrovica             
26900G09     0    81    19   100   47.5   53.2   57.2  109.2   63.6   57.6   31.7   42.7   55.4   29   Valjevo                       
28500G11     0    83    17   100   38.9   48.6   58.4  115.1   67.7   61.9   23.9   34.6   47.1   30   Veliko Gradiste               
48900G24     0    82    18   100   36.0   37.3   54.5  103.6   59.0   55.1   26.1   33.2   40.9   30   Vranje                        
18300G04     0    82    18   100   33.3   39.4   53.7  111.4   65.1   59.4   19.9   29.2   40.1   30   Vrsac                         
39200G15     0    82    18   100   38.1   43.4   50.9  108.1   62.7   57.2   21.9   33.0   46.5   30   Zajecar                       
36700G16     0    81    19   100   66.6   72.2   68.7  106.8   61.8   55.9   45.1   60.2   77.2   30   Zlatibor                      
17300G02     0    77    23   100   34.1   38.6   46.9  111.4   65.0   58.8   21.3   29.6   39.2   30   Zrenjanin                     


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ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju
------------------------------

------------------------------
padavine > gornjeg tercila
------------------------------
dani

 5-11 na severu 0.6-0.7, na jugu 0.7-0.8
12-18 0.6-0.7
19-25 0.5-0.6
26-32 0.5-0.6
------------------------------
padavine < donjeg tercila
------------------------------
dani

 5-11 0.7-0.8
12-18 0.6-0.7
19-25 0.5-0.6
26-32 0.5-0.6
------------------------------