***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.8 57.6 56.5 -1.9 -0.1 1.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.5 55.3 54.8 -2.4 -0.8 0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 2.1 2.3 0.2 0.7 56.9 56.3 0.0 1.6 3.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 -3.3 -2.9 -2.4 0.9 59.1 58.6 -5.8 -3.9 -2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 -0.7 -0.4 -2.1 0.9 58.8 58.3 -2.5 -1.1 0.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 -1.2 -1.0 -4.3 0.9 59.1 59.0 -3.0 -1.7 -0.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.5 54.8 54.2 -2.1 -0.5 0.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -6.1 -6.0 -4.3 0.7 56.5 56.4 -8.0 -6.5 -5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 0.3 0.6 -1.7 0.9 58.6 58.1 -1.6 -0.1 1.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 0.2 0.4 -3.4 0.8 57.6 57.4 -1.6 -0.2 1.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 0.0 0.3 -2.8 0.9 59.3 58.9 -1.9 -0.4 0.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 -1.0 -0.7 -3.5 0.9 58.6 58.2 -2.8 -1.4 -0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 0.9 0.2 -3.7 1.0 59.6 59.1 -2.0 -0.6 0.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 0.7 0.8 -2.0 0.7 56.5 56.2 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 0.2 0.5 -1.4 0.9 59.1 58.7 -2.1 -0.4 1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 0.8 1.1 -3.2 1.0 59.8 59.3 -1.1 0.3 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.4 53.7 53.4 -2.4 -0.7 0.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 -1.9 -1.9 -4.1 0.7 56.6 56.6 -3.7 -2.4 -1.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 55.8 55.3 -2.1 -0.5 0.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 -5.0 -5.3 -5.8 0.4 53.6 54.0 -7.9 -5.7 -3.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 0.0 0.2 -0.5 0.7 57.5 56.8 -1.9 -0.4 0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.4 54.1 53.9 -2.5 -0.9 0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.6 56.5 56.0 -2.3 -0.9 0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 -0.2 0.0 -2.2 0.7 57.3 57.1 -2.0 -0.6 0.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 -0.4 -0.1 -1.0 0.9 58.8 57.9 -2.1 -0.8 0.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 -0.2 0.1 -3.7 1.1 60.4 59.9 -1.9 -0.6 0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 0.2 0.4 -0.2 0.8 57.8 56.8 -1.9 -0.3 1.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 -1.3 -1.1 -2.3 0.8 58.2 58.0 -3.3 -1.8 -0.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 -2.4 -2.4 -4.7 0.6 55.8 55.9 -4.5 -2.9 -1.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 56.0 55.4 -1.9 -0.3 1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------