***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2019.-24.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.0 7.2 0.4 53.6 52.6 5.4 7.5 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.4 7.4 7.5 0.7 56.3 55.1 4.4 6.6 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.7 7.6 0.3 53.0 52.3 5.1 7.3 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.5 -0.3 3.3 -0.7 43.6 43.9 -1.8 0.5 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.6 6.9 5.2 -0.4 46.5 46.5 5.0 7.4 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.3 4.0 -0.2 47.8 47.4 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.0 7.1 7.5 0.9 57.8 56.3 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -1.0 -2.3 4.2 -0.4 46.3 47.0 -4.0 -1.8 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.7 7.5 6.3 -0.2 48.2 48.0 5.4 7.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 8.7 7.3 5.0 -0.4 46.6 47.1 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 8.8 7.4 5.7 -0.3 47.3 47.3 5.5 7.8 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.2 7.0 5.0 -0.3 47.4 47.6 5.0 7.3 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.7 7.3 5.2 -0.3 47.5 47.5 5.3 7.7 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.0 6.8 0.0 50.3 50.4 5.6 8.0 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 7.3 6.3 5.1 -0.3 47.4 47.2 4.5 6.6 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.1 7.7 5.1 -0.3 47.5 47.4 5.7 8.0 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.9 7.0 7.4 0.9 58.1 56.5 4.0 6.1 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 8.2 7.0 5.0 -0.1 48.8 49.3 5.0 7.2 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.3 7.6 0.6 55.4 54.4 4.2 6.6 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 4.2 3.3 3.1 -0.1 49.5 50.1 1.1 3.3 5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.6 7.1 0.0 50.1 49.6 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.4 7.5 0.7 56.1 54.9 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.0 7.6 7.7 0.5 54.5 53.6 4.6 7.0 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.7 7.7 6.7 0.0 50.1 50.2 5.5 7.7 9.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.6 5.6 0.0 50.3 49.7 4.3 6.5 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.2 7.1 4.4 -0.1 48.7 48.3 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.3 6.7 0.4 53.9 52.8 4.6 6.8 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.1 6.4 4.1 -0.7 44.3 44.5 4.9 7.2 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 4.4 3.4 4.5 0.0 49.7 50.2 1.1 3.5 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.3 7.1 7.4 0.6 55.4 54.3 4.2 6.4 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------