***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2019.-17.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 92 8 100 6.1 5.6 4.8 -0.2 47.8 47.9 3.7 5.8 7.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 93 7 100 5.4 4.8 4.8 -0.3 47.3 47.2 2.9 5.1 7.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 6.3 4.8 4.5 -0.8 42.7 43.1 3.4 5.7 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 -0.3 -1.6 1.4 -0.7 43.7 43.9 -3.0 -0.8 1.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 6.6 4.3 2.5 -1.3 38.7 39.3 3.5 5.7 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.1 3.8 0.9 -1.4 37.3 37.9 3.3 5.3 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 93 7 100 5.0 4.6 4.8 -0.1 49.0 48.9 2.4 4.7 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 -5.2 -4.7 0.3 -2.5 27.9 29.2 -4.1 -2.3 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.7 4.4 3.5 -1.3 38.6 39.2 3.6 5.9 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 2.9 3.4 1.3 -2.2 31.1 32.2 3.6 5.8 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 6.8 4.4 2.8 -1.5 37.5 38.1 3.8 6.0 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.9 3.4 1.5 -1.9 32.7 33.7 3.5 5.6 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.0 4.3 2.4 -1.7 35.3 36.1 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 3.0 3.8 3.2 -1.8 34.5 35.3 3.6 6.0 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 95 5 100 5.4 5.5 4.3 0.2 52.0 51.7 3.0 5.2 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 7.3 5.1 2.4 -1.3 38.4 38.9 4.4 6.5 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 92 8 100 5.0 4.3 4.5 -0.3 46.8 46.8 2.6 4.7 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 2.0 2.5 0.5 -2.6 27.7 29.2 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 91 9 100 5.5 4.5 4.7 -0.5 45.6 45.7 2.8 5.1 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 -0.9 -1.0 -1.6 -3.1 22.0 24.1 0.4 2.2 3.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 6.6 4.5 4.3 -1.1 40.4 40.9 3.5 5.8 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 5.6 4.4 4.5 -0.7 43.9 44.0 2.9 5.2 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 5.8 4.3 4.5 -0.8 43.1 43.3 2.9 5.2 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 2.7 3.6 2.9 -2.0 33.0 34.0 3.6 5.9 8.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 5.6 4.5 3.5 -0.5 45.5 45.6 2.9 5.1 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.6 4.0 1.0 -1.8 32.5 33.8 4.0 6.1 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 6.0 5.2 4.3 -0.3 46.9 47.0 3.4 5.6 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 6.1 5.0 2.6 -0.6 45.0 45.0 3.3 5.7 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 -1.8 -1.5 -0.2 -2.8 25.4 27.1 -0.4 1.8 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 5.2 4.6 4.8 -0.3 47.3 47.3 2.7 4.9 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------