***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-08.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.7 6.5 6.6 68.5 50.8 42.4 3.2 6.3 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.8 7.8 7.0 76.6 55.9 44.4 3.7 6.5 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.0 7.9 7.4 74.5 53.4 45.7 3.2 6.9 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.4 11.7 9.7 94.6 61.4 51.3 5.1 8.6 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 11.1 10.6 9.0 86.9 57.9 48.6 4.5 8.3 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.8 9.2 11.3 101.9 63.1 50.9 3.9 6.5 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.2 6.1 6.5 71.7 53.4 42.1 3.0 5.5 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 9.1 18.1 10.2 89.2 58.7 48.3 8.6 14.4 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.6 7.5 8.5 79.9 54.6 45.8 3.5 6.4 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.1 9.8 84.2 56.0 47.0 4.2 7.5 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.6 8.0 9.0 90.1 58.5 48.1 3.5 6.2 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.5 8.0 9.3 94.0 60.5 48.6 3.4 5.9 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.8 8.8 10.1 94.4 59.9 48.5 3.8 6.6 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 14.2 14.3 10.7 90.0 59.9 51.1 4.7 9.8 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.8 11.4 10.2 107.0 66.2 53.9 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.3 8.4 9.7 96.3 61.0 49.9 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.1 6.1 6.5 75.9 55.5 43.1 3.1 5.3 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.5 8.7 11.1 85.8 56.4 48.3 3.8 7.1 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.4 8.9 7.5 80.9 57.5 46.7 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.1 9.7 12.8 84.1 56.5 48.1 4.8 8.2 12.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.2 7.5 7.5 73.4 51.9 44.2 3.7 7.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 7.8 7.2 7.1 80.1 56.9 45.4 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.8 8.5 8.5 86.8 59.4 49.9 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.6 11.7 9.8 84.2 56.6 48.8 5.3 9.5 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.8 7.2 8.2 73.7 52.7 45.0 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.2 8.9 10.2 100.2 62.8 48.4 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 8.1 5.8 7.3 67.5 50.3 42.1 2.9 5.8 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.1 10.0 10.2 105.0 65.1 53.0 2.7 5.8 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.7 11.9 86.4 57.2 49.2 6.6 11.3 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.8 7.5 6.9 74.2 54.6 44.3 3.4 6.5 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------